Tracking the great divide: Why Cameron and Miliband aren't taking the centre

David Cameron and Ed Miliband face symmetrical challenges. Each man is prodded by some in his own ranks to be more radical (rightwards to fend off Ukip in Cameron’s case, leftwards to show boldness in Miliband’s case); on the other hand, old hands who know what it’s like to win elections outright, such as Tony Blair and Kenneth Clarke, urge a more centrist strategy.

New YouGov research throws light on this. From time to time we ask people where they place parties, leaders and themselves on a seven-point scale, from very left-wing via centre to very right-wing. Note that this is a wholly subjective scale, to do with tone rather than policy or ideology. Many people who consider themselves on the left don’t like immigrants; many on the right would like the railways renationalised.

Nevertheless, tone matters. Barely one in four voters say they are “very” or “fairly” right-wing (11 per cent) or left-wing (15 per cent). Blair won three elections in a row partly because most people thought he was at or near the centre; the Tories stayed in opposition because William Hague and Michael Howard were seen to be well to the right.

Today, neither Cameron nor Miliband are “winning” this particular battle. If anything, Cameron is seen as slightly further from the centre than Miliband. If we convert the answers into a scale from -100 (very left-wing) to +100 (very right-wing), then the average public perceptions of the two leaders are Cameron +42, Miliband -37.

True, Cameron is seen as less extreme than Howard (+52 on the eve of the 2005 election)—but the Prime Minister is now seen as more right-wing than he was in opposition. In 2007 his score was down to an electorally more appealing +28.

Miliband is seen as slightly more left-wing than Gordon Brown (-27 during the 2010 election) but much more left-wing than Blair (+5: yes, PLUS 5) in 2006.

Both Cameron and Miliband fit comfortably with the self-description of their own voters. On average, Labour supporters put themselves at -40, and Tory supporters at +30. But both leaders have difficulty reaching beyond their ranks—hence the inability of either Labour or the Tories to reach 40 per cent support in YouGov’s daily surveys.

Plainly a more centrist appeal would help; but it is not everything. After all, most people think Nick Clegg belongs, like them, to the centre. Much good has it done him. A centrist reputation doesn’t remotely guarantee victory; but in this post-ideological era, a reputation for being too far to the right or left does guarantee defeat.