David Cameron's speech to Conservative Party Conference today was relatively light on policy, but rhetorically it could hardly have been more significant. He proudly emphasised his record as a Tory moderniser ("You said our party wouldn’t change—we have," he told his doubters). But more importantly he made an explicit pitch for centrist Labour voters disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn, including a long, almost Miliband-ite segment in which he professed a desire to fix the fact that "Britain has the lowest social mobility in the developed world." The speech's biggest policy announcement—a change to planning laws allowing developers to build affordable homes to buy rather than rent—speaks to this one nation Toryism, though critics have warned that these homes will not be particularly affordable for many on lower incomes. He also reiterated his theme from earlier in the year about tackling not just terrorist activity, but the ideology which leads many of society's least fortunate into it.
It is not hard to find evidence which contradicts David Cameron's centrist presentation of his party. Cuts to tax credits announced in the budget which will hit poor working people have drawn anger not only from Labour's Jeremy Corbyn but from the Sun newspaper. Home Secretary Theresa May's speech yesterday was widely criticised—including by writers for the Telegraph and Spectator—for a perceived lurch to the right on immigration. Rules being introduced to curb the powers of Britain's relatively tame unions are fodder for the Tory faithful. Even in this speech, Cameron dedicated plenty of time to that most reliably Conservative of topics; defence, and our mighty armed forces.
But if nothing else, Cameron has made a statement of intent: to turn the 2010s into the "turnaround decade" where Britain becomes more prosperous, more filled with opportunity for all and more socially cohesive. So what should we make of these intentions?
Cameron's optimism about the future on growth and jobs—and the difference his polices will make—have to be tempered by the weakening in the world economy, made worse by the clouds gathering around the emerging markets. Investment is slowing down, there are renewed weaknesses in manufacturing and services, and UK exports are constrained by the continued problems of the eurozone and the weakening outlook in China. Investment intentions are affected by uncertainty about the EU referendum.
In that environment the strain on public finances will remain. Deficit reduction will be a three parliament attempt, at least, despite Cameron wishing to see a surplus in this one. And unbalanced growth is here to stay. The CEBR forecasts that the gap between rich southern regions and poorer northern ones will almost double between now and 2020 despite the government's devolution promises, including the business rate reform. Growth will still depend on consumer borrowing and spending.
Employment growth is slowing down but real earnings are recovering, and the expansion of free childcare will help as will the faster increase in the minimum wage and lower income tax thresholds. But Cameron will find it hard to meet his pledge to fight poverty and have a more equal nation given the welfare cuts that will fall hardest on the poorest. Huge cuts are going to fall on government departments, little extra money will be invested in infrastructure despite media hype and the business community will remain worried by his acceptance of "controlled migration."
David Cameron’s today kicked off his housebuilding “crusade” by pledging to lead a transformation “from Generation Rent to Generation Buy." He argued that the phrase “affordable housing” is deceptive because it only includes homes to rent, ignoring the fact most people want to own. This may be so, but under Cameron’s plan, the phrase will be rendered meaningless.
He intends to alter the definition of affordable housing so that it includes Starter Homes, which will be sold to first-time buyers at a slender 20 per cent discount. But Shelter calculates that average earning families will be priced out of Starter Homes in 58 per cent of local authorities by 2020, while families earning the National Living Wage will be priced out in 98 per cent of the country. Cameron has already scrapped social rents (which typically charge 50 per cent of market rates) and replaced them with so-called “affordable rents” (which charge 80 per cent)—unaffordable to many low-income households currently languishing on council waiting lists. If there was little hope for the poor before, there is none now. By now diverting funding to Starter Homes, he is effectively abandoning the millions of hard-working low-earners that make up Generation Rent to sell a dream of aspiration to a mere 200,000 higher earners. Some might call that “deceptive."
I am delighted David Cameron is talking about social mobility. The problem is that if you are going to have upward social mobility then you also need to have downward social mobility, logically more people need to descend in order for more to ascend. So, I will look forward to David Cameron’s proposals to have fewer Etonians at the top of the Conservative Party and generally reduce the ability of well-off, well-connected families to help their children by sending them to private schools, and using their own social networks to help them get the top jobs. There was nothing on today’s speech aimed at tackling what Cameron’s former policy advisor Steve Hilton so aptly calls the “chumocracy”.
I also thought his personal attack on Jeremy Corbyn was either ill-judged or very Machiavellian. While people who are of unsure Corbyn might sympathise with him after such a personal onslaught, what Cameron really wants is for Corbyn to survive. One way of bolstering his support is for the Tories to make him a demonic figure in the eyes of the right.
Cameron just parked the Conservatives on the centre-ground of British politics, adopting the language and ideas of both left and right. With the appointment of Lord Adonis as Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, the Conservative Party is now even recruiting key personnel from the left.
Cameron captured the mood of the majority, rather than the angry clicktivists fuelling Corbynism: he was positive about their individual futures—especially with the economy and employment growing—and the state and direction of modern Britain.
But the speech was a pitch to the margins of society, not just the mainstream. In his final term, the PM is seeking a legacy which is not just balancing the books, but also his original passion: social reform. He is seeking to implement reforms to the prisons, welfare and education systems based on Conservative principles to successfully improve the lives of the most disadvantaged. There is a hunger to further enhance the Conservatives' electoral success by being the party of head and heart.
But the Government's actions have to match this welcome rhetoric. The jury is still out.
The Prime Minister has laid out a robust declaration of his intent to counter extremism. While little of the rhetoric is new, the fact that he is now able to deliver it from a position of confidence and strength means it is important to consider the detail of what he is saying.
The PM’s focus is one that very much tracks back from the front line of counter-terrorism (disrupting terrorist plots and networks) into the space of countering extremist ideas. While there is a confusing grey space between the two, where you draw the defining line of the law is something that varies depending on where you stand on the political spectrum. Clearly, the government is keen to push deep into the territory of confronting extreme ideas and wants to try to push such ideologies firmly into the illicit space. The question, however, is what the necessary relationship with counter-terrorism is. While few would dispute that those who practice such horrible acts as FGM or forced marriages in the UK should be prosecuted, it is unclear what relationship this specific behaviour has to those who are radicalised into terrorist networks.
The eagerness to confront conspiracy theories and the dissemination of incorrect information is a good ambition. The problem with confronting it in the space of extremism is that you are up against conspiracy theorists, who will pivot on a wisp of information into a spiral of obfuscation and confusion. Tackling such narratives in this space is not only difficult (since they are inherently intangible), but also ultimately pointless since no matter what is said they will find a way of pivoting away to contradict you and use your narrative to further strengthen their own. Cameron would do better to focus on the approach he also advocated of setting out what makes the United Kingdom great and focusing on that, rather than trying to correct those who are inherently bent on looking for something darker.
It is not hard to find evidence which contradicts David Cameron's centrist presentation of his party. Cuts to tax credits announced in the budget which will hit poor working people have drawn anger not only from Labour's Jeremy Corbyn but from the Sun newspaper. Home Secretary Theresa May's speech yesterday was widely criticised—including by writers for the Telegraph and Spectator—for a perceived lurch to the right on immigration. Rules being introduced to curb the powers of Britain's relatively tame unions are fodder for the Tory faithful. Even in this speech, Cameron dedicated plenty of time to that most reliably Conservative of topics; defence, and our mighty armed forces.
But if nothing else, Cameron has made a statement of intent: to turn the 2010s into the "turnaround decade" where Britain becomes more prosperous, more filled with opportunity for all and more socially cohesive. So what should we make of these intentions?
Temper your optimism
Vicky Pryce—Chief Economic Advisor for the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR)Cameron's optimism about the future on growth and jobs—and the difference his polices will make—have to be tempered by the weakening in the world economy, made worse by the clouds gathering around the emerging markets. Investment is slowing down, there are renewed weaknesses in manufacturing and services, and UK exports are constrained by the continued problems of the eurozone and the weakening outlook in China. Investment intentions are affected by uncertainty about the EU referendum.
In that environment the strain on public finances will remain. Deficit reduction will be a three parliament attempt, at least, despite Cameron wishing to see a surplus in this one. And unbalanced growth is here to stay. The CEBR forecasts that the gap between rich southern regions and poorer northern ones will almost double between now and 2020 despite the government's devolution promises, including the business rate reform. Growth will still depend on consumer borrowing and spending.
Employment growth is slowing down but real earnings are recovering, and the expansion of free childcare will help as will the faster increase in the minimum wage and lower income tax thresholds. But Cameron will find it hard to meet his pledge to fight poverty and have a more equal nation given the welfare cuts that will fall hardest on the poorest. Huge cuts are going to fall on government departments, little extra money will be invested in infrastructure despite media hype and the business community will remain worried by his acceptance of "controlled migration."
Generation unable to buy
Nick Duxbury—Executive Editor of Inside HousingDavid Cameron’s today kicked off his housebuilding “crusade” by pledging to lead a transformation “from Generation Rent to Generation Buy." He argued that the phrase “affordable housing” is deceptive because it only includes homes to rent, ignoring the fact most people want to own. This may be so, but under Cameron’s plan, the phrase will be rendered meaningless.
He intends to alter the definition of affordable housing so that it includes Starter Homes, which will be sold to first-time buyers at a slender 20 per cent discount. But Shelter calculates that average earning families will be priced out of Starter Homes in 58 per cent of local authorities by 2020, while families earning the National Living Wage will be priced out in 98 per cent of the country. Cameron has already scrapped social rents (which typically charge 50 per cent of market rates) and replaced them with so-called “affordable rents” (which charge 80 per cent)—unaffordable to many low-income households currently languishing on council waiting lists. If there was little hope for the poor before, there is none now. By now diverting funding to Starter Homes, he is effectively abandoning the millions of hard-working low-earners that make up Generation Rent to sell a dream of aspiration to a mere 200,000 higher earners. Some might call that “deceptive."
A Machiavellian move?
Peter Kellner—President of YouGovI am delighted David Cameron is talking about social mobility. The problem is that if you are going to have upward social mobility then you also need to have downward social mobility, logically more people need to descend in order for more to ascend. So, I will look forward to David Cameron’s proposals to have fewer Etonians at the top of the Conservative Party and generally reduce the ability of well-off, well-connected families to help their children by sending them to private schools, and using their own social networks to help them get the top jobs. There was nothing on today’s speech aimed at tackling what Cameron’s former policy advisor Steve Hilton so aptly calls the “chumocracy”.
I also thought his personal attack on Jeremy Corbyn was either ill-judged or very Machiavellian. While people who are of unsure Corbyn might sympathise with him after such a personal onslaught, what Cameron really wants is for Corbyn to survive. One way of bolstering his support is for the Tories to make him a demonic figure in the eyes of the right.
Moving to the centre
Ryan Shorthouse—Founder and Director of Bright BlueCameron just parked the Conservatives on the centre-ground of British politics, adopting the language and ideas of both left and right. With the appointment of Lord Adonis as Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, the Conservative Party is now even recruiting key personnel from the left.
Cameron captured the mood of the majority, rather than the angry clicktivists fuelling Corbynism: he was positive about their individual futures—especially with the economy and employment growing—and the state and direction of modern Britain.
But the speech was a pitch to the margins of society, not just the mainstream. In his final term, the PM is seeking a legacy which is not just balancing the books, but also his original passion: social reform. He is seeking to implement reforms to the prisons, welfare and education systems based on Conservative principles to successfully improve the lives of the most disadvantaged. There is a hunger to further enhance the Conservatives' electoral success by being the party of head and heart.
But the Government's actions have to match this welcome rhetoric. The jury is still out.
Extremism: focus on the positive
Rafaello Pantucci—Director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services InstituteThe Prime Minister has laid out a robust declaration of his intent to counter extremism. While little of the rhetoric is new, the fact that he is now able to deliver it from a position of confidence and strength means it is important to consider the detail of what he is saying.
The PM’s focus is one that very much tracks back from the front line of counter-terrorism (disrupting terrorist plots and networks) into the space of countering extremist ideas. While there is a confusing grey space between the two, where you draw the defining line of the law is something that varies depending on where you stand on the political spectrum. Clearly, the government is keen to push deep into the territory of confronting extreme ideas and wants to try to push such ideologies firmly into the illicit space. The question, however, is what the necessary relationship with counter-terrorism is. While few would dispute that those who practice such horrible acts as FGM or forced marriages in the UK should be prosecuted, it is unclear what relationship this specific behaviour has to those who are radicalised into terrorist networks.
The eagerness to confront conspiracy theories and the dissemination of incorrect information is a good ambition. The problem with confronting it in the space of extremism is that you are up against conspiracy theorists, who will pivot on a wisp of information into a spiral of obfuscation and confusion. Tackling such narratives in this space is not only difficult (since they are inherently intangible), but also ultimately pointless since no matter what is said they will find a way of pivoting away to contradict you and use your narrative to further strengthen their own. Cameron would do better to focus on the approach he also advocated of setting out what makes the United Kingdom great and focusing on that, rather than trying to correct those who are inherently bent on looking for something darker.
