The party needs to redefine its taskby Peter Kellner / August 20, 2015 / Leave a comment
Published in September 2015 issue of Prospect Magazine
Scroll down to explore the data
Could Labour win the next general election with Jeremy Corbyn as leader? Conventional wisdom says: of course not. But three months ago, conventional wisdom mocked the idea that he could ever become leader. We should not dismiss the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn out of hand.
This month’s YouGov research for Prospect examines two propositions that are central to Corbyn’s appeal: that Labour needs to reconnect with its working class roots; and that it is possible for the party to gain votes by moving to the left.
First, Labour’s roots. Manual workers and their families (the normal definition of working class) once dominated its vote. In the early 70s, the party had the backing of 10m of them, compared with two million of the middle class. Two thirds of all voters lived in working-class households.
Today, the balance is very different. Britain now has seven million more middle-class than working-class electors—and the working class is not just smaller but different. The decline of industries such as coal mining, shipbuilding and steelmaking, and the falling numbers of production-line factories, has battered working-class culture and institutions, notably trade unions. Labour’s hold on working-class voters has weakened. At the last two general elections, the party won more middle-class than working-class votes.