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Don’t bet on a Tory landslide

Gordon Brown may have seen off a second coup but, given his humiliation in June’s elections and David Cameron’s handsome poll lead, a thumping Tory victory in 2010 seem all but inevitable. Not so fast, though. Cameron currently boasts a meagre 198 MPs. To win he needs 125 more. What are the odds?

Assuming a uniform swing, pollster Peter Kellner thinks a 6 per cent poll lead will only just see Cameron draw level with Labour, at about 280 seats each. For a majority of one over all parties, Cameron needs a lead…

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