It’s certainly shrewd for the Conservatives to show Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond’s pocket. At a stroke it sends two completely different message to two groups. The first is obvious: English voters who worry about the SNP’s influence. The second group could also help the Tories to remain the largest party after May 7: former Labour voters who now say they would vote SNP. If they can be persuaded that a big SNP contingent will work with Miliband, then there is no need for them to return to the Labour fold. The more seats that Labour loses to the SNP, the happier the Tories will be.
How, though, should Labour respond? The party has been considering whether or not to rule out any deal with the SNP. The case for doing so would be to fight the charge that a minority Labour government would depend on support from a party that wishes to break up the United Kingdom.
The case against is that it sucks Labour into a public debate it would rather avoid. If it makes clear its view about how to deal with the SNP after May 7, then it will go on to face questions about a possible deal with the Liberal Democrats or Ulster’s Democratic Unionists. The easiest, if implausible, response is to insist that Labour is fighting for an overall majority and not contemplating any other outcome.
The trouble is that the underlying choice isn’t simply deal-or-no-deal. I would be astonished if Miliband negotiated a formal agreement with the SNP. The idea of separatist MPs becoming UK ministers in a full coalition is preposterous. The prospect of a confidence-and-supply arrangement is almost as damaging.
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Could the SNP do a deal with the Tories?
However, neither of these needs to happen for the SNP to exert influence. Suppose Labour wins 280 seats, the Tories 275, the Lib Dems and SNP 30 each. Miliband might well reach out to the Lib Dems. Together the two parties would have 310 seats—still short of a majority. The SNP could announce that it would judge each vote in Parliament on its merits: supporting Miliband on some issues, opposing him on others and abstaining on issues of no real concern to Scotland.
Most of the time, a minority Lib-Lab coalition would have little difficulty getting its way. But, from time to time, the coalition would face defeat, if the Tories, SNP, Ukip and DUP MPs voted together. Would Labour tweak its proposals (say its annual Budget, or on defence spending) to divide the opposition? Would Miliband make a slightly more generous offer of fresh powers for the Scottish parliament than he would if he commanded a secure majority at Westminster?
My point is that the SNP could sway the decisions of a Labour-led government without having to negotiate with it, let alone sign a formal agreement. Its power will depend on the arithmetic of the House of Commons, not on whether Miliband invites Alex Salmond (or Nicola Sturgeon) to hammer out a common strategy for governing Britain.
To the extent that the Tory poster exploits this truth then, however exaggerated or distasteful it is (and I would far prefer a far more respectful election campaign from all parties than we are likely to get,) it cannot be completely dismissed.
