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Seven thoughts on the election

by James Crabtree / November 5, 2008 / Leave a comment
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Cheers!

Cheers!

It’s all over; let the parsing commence. The political equivalent of skiing in fresh powder-commentators out doing themselves to find the most compelling, counterintuitive narrative to explain “what just happened”-is now the sport of the moment. David Brooks is in there early. Having been the commentator who did most to popularise the notion of an exurban revolt in 2004, this time he sees three seismic shifts:

Economically, it marks the end of the Long Boom, which began in 1983. Politically, it probably marks the end of conservative dominance, which began in 1980. Generationally, it marks the end of baby boomer supremacy, which began in 1968.

Not to be outdone, here are some quick, mid-morning thoughts on last night.

First, don’t entirely write off the divided nation. Obama won, but he didn’t “win big.” He is likely to win fewer electoral college votes than Clinton in either 1992 (370) or 1996 (379.) His 52 per cent of the vote, while a clear mandate, is only a single percentage point more than Bush in 2004. In short, after two close polls and the embedding of a notion that liberals must always win or lose by inches, this is not an epic change in the political georgraphy of the United States. It is what a relatively normal Democratic victory look like.

Second, while McCain clearly ran a poor campaign, he did no worse than median expectations. Indeed, he did better than Bush Snr, and Bob Dole, in their respective defeats. Very few of the “stretch” targets for the Obama campaign fell. Florida went, as did Elizabeth Dole’s Senate seat. But Georgia and South Carolina didn’t. Equally, some wilder hopes—Democrats to pick up the Senate seat of Mitch McConnell, for instance—also didn’t come to pass.

Third, the most significant change of the election will be the swing away from the Republicans in the mountain west—in which Colorado, especially, went strongly for Obama. In an election whose headlines focus on race, it is Latino voters, a fast growing demographic now vital in American elections, who will have made the difference. That said, some of the bigger changes in Latino voting patterns appear not to have happened. Despite carrying Florida, Democrats do not seem to have taken a number of closely watched southern Florida congressional races, in which traditionally right-wing Cuban Americans…

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Comments

  1. Lance Knobel
    November 5, 2008 at 19:39
    It may be helpful to temper irrational exuberance, but you go too far. Obama's 52% is the best Democratic result since 1964 and the first time a non-incumbent received that high a percentage of the total vote since 1952. Clinton's very high electoral vote totals were partly the result of Ross Perot splitting the more conservative vote. Also, it's easy to say now that none of Obama's "stretch" targets were met. But six months ago you would not have found many observers believing a Democrat could win Virginia or Indiana. You have to go back to 1964 to find a Democrat winning either state. Cheer up.
  2. James Crabtree
    November 6, 2008 at 13:35
    Lance - thanks for the comment. I must say i rather regret not prefacing this comment with a bit more on realising how historic the event is. A closer view of the figures - biggest popular vote since LBJ, first democrat since Carter to get 50%+ - would also have been worth a mention, along with the Perot point. All in all, a bit of balance would have been better. I suppose all i was trying to get accross was that this feels like a landslide, akin to Blair in 1997, or Reagan in 1984, and it isn't. The right has some thinking to do, and while an uphill march, i see no reason why they shouldn't be competitive in 2012. Equally, the Clinton comparison is instructive, in that the two Presidents find themselves in broadly similar positions electorally, even though the challenge facing Obama is clearly greater. So a little realism, i'd have thought, would help to set the scene for what comes next. That said, looking deeper into the figures, it seems my initial pessimism on turnout, youth turnout and religion might not stand up to scrutiny either.

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About this author

James Crabtree
James Crabtree is comment editor of the FT
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