Can Cameron maintain his balancing act on Europe?

We should be careful not to overestimate the gains of far-right parties in last week's EU elections, said Professor Sarah Hobolt, Sutherland Chair in European Institutions at LSE, at a debate at Europe House in London last night. Their overall gain on the 2009 election has been 1.8 per cent—a rise, certainly, but not the tidal wave we have been hearing about in some media reports, she said. Far-right parties made big gains in Austria, France, Denmark and the UK, but they lost support in Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Italy.

What we really are seeing is a backlash against mainstream parties, she said. Discontent over the EU is not central to this: many of the far-right parties that did gain support didn't campaign on an anti-Europe ticket. Echoing Nick Clegg's comments in the latest issue of Prospect, she pointed instead to the impact of globalisation. It's those people who feel they have not gained from the effects of globalisation; those with less education who feel that they are losing out in the race for jobs, for example, who are turning against mainstream politics. As a result, the parties that have seen the biggest rise in support are those that have moved left on the economy but right on cultural issues, for example, the Danish People's Party and the Freedom Party in Austria.

It is the "left behind" who form the core of Ukip support, too, said Vernon Bogdanor, professor at King's College London. This is why Ukip was not successful in metropolises like London, Manchester, Birmingham and Newcastle. He noted that Ukip is dominated by working-class voters to a greater extent than any of the other parties— "obviously this is a particular problem for the Labour Party," he added. And Hobolt argued that, like similar parties across Europe, Ukip will have to move to the left economically if it is to retain its working-class appeal.

What will the impact be of these election results on British politics? Anti-establishment parties are here to stay, said Hobolt: we would be mistaken to think this is a temporary situation. Simon Hix, professor of European politics at LSE, said he believes the UK is heading in the direction of Holland, which elected 11 different parties, with just 9 per cent of the vote going to the "mainstream" Labour Party.

Hobolt also pointed to the impact of these anti-establishment parties on government policy: this has already happened at a national level across Europe and may now also happen at a European level. However, she noted that the first-past-the-post system protects mainstream parties so the rise of the far-right is of more concern in countries that use proportional representation in domestic elections, such as Denmark.

Vernon Bogdanor described Europe as the "poisoned chalice" of British politics, "ever since we made our first application." It was the issue on which Margaret Thatcher fell, it ruined John Major's government, and it now threatens to break up the Conservative Party. Yet when the public is asked about which issues are most important to them, it only comes fourth on the list of priorities. But, "correctly or not," the message politicians will take away from this election is that taking a pro-Europe position leads to disaster.

Can David Cameron maintain his current balancing act on Europe? he asked. Despite first appearances, the results of this election may actually help him. Francois Hollande is likely to call for the repatriation of powers following the Front National's victory in France, he said, and Angela Merkel will need to keep the UK within the Union more than ever.