This has been a bumper week for politics and policy news, starting with the post-election analysis, and followed by the Queen’s Speech setting out the government’s legislative programme for the year. A newly-confident Boris Johnson administration paints an exciting picture of a country waiting to be transformed. But whether this transformation will actually reach the lives of those struggling to stay afloat remains to be seen.
First, the election results. “Super Thursday” was a good day for incumbents across the UK. In England it was clear that the voters who swept Johnson to power in 2019 are sticking with him. This was just the latest staging post in a long-term trend of low-income voters moving away from the Labour Party, becoming “politically homeless” and then swinging towards the Conservatives. Joseph Rowntree Foundation research has shown that in 2019, the Tories achieved a 15-point lead over Labour among low-income voters.
These voters aren’t “bankable” for the Conservatives, though. The vaccine bounce and “getting Brexit done” have held them so far, along with the attraction of leaders like Ben Houchen and Johnson himself. But by the next election they will expect to see progress on the government’s other promise—to “level up.”
Levelling up is a pretty terrible term. As Rachel Wolf reports, in focus groups the public don’t understand it, and when it’s explained, they find it irritating. But turning it from a slogan into something deliverable is still likely to make or break the Johnson government.
We now know there will be a white paper this year, with highly-regarded policy wonk and MP Neil O’Brien leading it (a good sign that it is a serious endeavour). O’Brien’s first task will be defining what levelling up means. It was reassuring to see a statement, buried in the Queen’s Speech briefing notes, that it is first and foremost about living standards. The statement then listed eight other things it also is “about,” suggesting O’Brien will have to work hard to corral a defined programme. But putting living standards at the heart of the project is vital.
Levelling up will ring hollow if places that have been ignored for years end up with a new roundabout, a better train line but still no decent jobs or any way to escape damp, expensive homes. Claims to have improved living standards and opportunities will be wholly unconvincing if we don’t turn back the rising tide of poverty, hunger and homelessness which has swept more and more people into dire circumstances.
In the years leading up to 2020, JRF research showed a sharp rise in destitution. This week’s “State of Hunger” report from the Trussell Trust found an even greater surge of hunger during the pandemic, resulting from extreme poverty. Hundreds of thousands of people are coming out of Covid having piled up debt and rent arrears. Their physical and mental health has been eroded by ever-increasing hardship as well as isolation.
As Covid hit, one in eight workers was locked in poverty, with two and a half million in insecure jobs. During the pandemic, job losses were heavily concentrated among these low-paid workers—and four times as high for those with insecure working arrangements compared with workers with permanent contracts. Those who managed to keep their jobs were exposed to the full force of the virus and died in much greater numbers than better paid home workers. The recovery must be used to correct the problem of insecurity in our labour market.
The Queen’s Speech was the government’s first opportunity to set out its full vision for that recovery—what kind of nation we will rebuild. Sadly, it was more notable for what it left out than what was included. There were some bright spots, particularly the commitment to press ahead with the Renters Reform Bill to enable tenants to escape the constant threat of eviction and homelessness. One of the most glaring omissions was the promised Employment Bill. This was supposed to strengthen workers’ rights and clamp down on labour market abuses. It is deeply disappointing that the government does not consider this a priority.
The government’s next big test will be in the autumn. It will have to decide if it is really prepared to reduce the incomes of six million families overnight by £1,000 a year. The plan to cut social security just as furlough ends and unemployment spikes is economically incomprehensible, as well as immoral. Even now it simply is not providing an adequate lifeline when people are caught in a storm, as demonstrated in the Trussell Trust report. Worse, the design of the system can trap people in debt, making it even harder to escape destitution.
Living in poverty means not knowing whether you will be able to cover the bills or put enough food on the table, what hours you will be working one week to the next, or whether your landlord will evict you. The government has an opportunity to shape the UK’s recovery in a way that enables families to build a more secure life. That means delivering better jobs, genuinely affordable housing and a social security system designed to truly keep people afloat. Low-income voters are still willing to give Johnson’s government the benefit of the doubt, but that trust will run out if debt, deprivation and hunger continue to stalk their lives.
