Can protest politics keep the SNP in power?

The SNP might have lost last year’s independence referendum, but they still emerged as the dominant force in Scottish politics. In the immediate aftermath of the result, their formidable media machine moved to capitalise on the outpouring of grief among the 45 per cent who voted Yes—netting an astonishing 300 per cent membership increase. There were other winners—the Greens also saw a surge with anti-austerity movements increasing participation and action—but it was the SNP who captured the desire to keep moving and pushing the idea of a progressive Scotland.

Now, however, the SNP faces increasing challenges on multiple flanks. From the insurgent left comes RISE, a broad coalition on the Syriza/Podemos model, which marries independence rhetoric with socialist policies. With roots in the Radical Independence Campaign, RISE is also attempting to move beyond electoral machinery with a movement-based approach. From the ultra-nationalists there are multiple sporadic challenges: from the unfortunate Scottish Independence Party, demanding a Unilateral Declaration of Independence; from the steamrollering Hope Over Fear, a successful popular rallying front turned into a resurgent Tommy Sheridan's electoral vehicle; and from the unaffiliated elements of the Yes campaign who broadcast their dissatisfaction with the SNP's noncommittal approach to #indyref2. And, of course, from Corbyn's Labour: while his reception has been mixed so far in Scotland, it's clear from the flurry of press releases that the SNP feels a need to see Corbyn off at every turn. Labour could still seize back the left wing of the SNP's voter base, though Holyrood's PR system makes it harder to consolidate a base that will spread to RISE, the Greens and even, perhaps, Sheridan.

In this volatile situation, the cancellation of a major debate on a second referendum is a tricky spark. To the ultra-nationalists the SNP needs to both appease and keep in check, it will be seen as another betrayal; to the left-wingers who have thus far lent their support to the social democratic SNP, the Michelle Thomson affair is another coffin-nail alongside water privatisation, the Council Tax freeze, and a shaky approach to public transport. On the other hand, securing the first ever address from the STUC is a major symbolic and organisational coup: it is part of an increasing closeness to the trade union movement that is essential to cementing the support of much of the former Labour vote. These tensions will play out among the hugely increased membership—a membership largely to the left of current SNP policy, many of whom are openly organising to change and radicalise party structures.

Similar issues now face Labour with its new Corbynite membership. Unlike the SNP, however, which seized the social power base of the Yes movement and converted it into party membership, the Corbyn leadership is seeking to take party membership and convert it into a social movement. The launch of Momentum is a major change in Labour strategy, allowing for the kind of agile actions, open meetings and fluid memberships which powered the Yes movement. Corbyn's strongest ally in the ongoing struggle for control of his party is this social movement power base—but just as the new SNP members are a problem for their party's leadership, the Parliamentary Labour Party and its associated commentariat frequently displays animosity to the new members.

For the UK, the new importance of social movements is a major shift in political life, one which has spin doctors tearing up their rulebooks and journalists eyeing their address-books with despair.

In contrast to the now hollowed-out trade union movement of the 20th century, this movementist expression in electoral politics is fluid, volatile and unpredictable. The change is also dramatic for those involved in the social movements themselves: electoral disaffection was the norm until very recently, and the graduates of the summit-hopping, climate camp and Occupy movements are not comfortable party members. It is, however, part of a pan-European electoral turn in progressive politics, as seen in Spain, Greece and elsewhere. Just as parties do not necessarily know how to deal with their new movements, movements do not necessarily know how to deal with their new parties, and many new members are struggling and learning about the compromises, bureaucracies and petty violences of electoral politics. On both sides, this is an uneasy bargain.

At the 2015 SNP conference, will the rabble-rousers in the former Yes movement change the direction of the Party, or will the Party continue to dominate the direction of Scotland's social movements? What's at stake is not just the shape of Scottish politics, but the shape of the UK's changing political sphere: how the new social movement power bases will be used, and how they will exercise their own strength.