Latest Issue

How did the Conservatives win?

A leading psephologist, and member of the exit poll team, on how electoral geography—and the voting system—helped to give Boris Johnson a majority of 80

By Stephen Fisher  

Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA Archive/PA Images

Let’s start with the mechanics. The Tories won 57 seats that they did not win in 2017, but they lost 10, so they are up 47 net, from 318 to 365 seats.

A standard uniform change projection from the Great British shares of the vote (Con 44.7 per cent, Lab 33 per cent, Lib Dem 11.8 per cent, with the SNP on 45 per cent of the Scottish vote and Plaid Cymru on 9.9 per cent of the Welsh vote) would suggest the following…

Register today to continue reading

You’ve hit your limit of three articles in the last 30 days. To get seven more, simply enter your email address below.

You’ll also receive our free e-book Prospect’s Top Thinkers 2020 and our newsletter with the best new writing on politics, economics, literature and the arts.

Prospect may process your personal information for our legitimate business purposes, to provide you with newsletters, subscription offers and other relevant information.

Click here to learn more about these purposes and how we use your data. You will be able to opt-out of further contact on the next page and in all our communications.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to

More From Prospect