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How did the Conservatives win?

A leading psephologist, and member of the exit poll team, on how electoral geography—and the voting system—helped to give Boris Johnson a majority of 80

By Stephen Fisher  

Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA Archive/PA Images

Let’s start with the mechanics. The Tories won 57 seats that they did not win in 2017, but they lost 10, so they are up 47 net, from 318 to 365 seats.

A standard uniform change projection from the Great British shares of the vote (Con 44.7 per cent, Lab 33 per cent, Lib Dem 11.8 per cent, with the SNP on 45 per cent of the Scottish vote and Plaid Cymru on 9.9 per cent of the Welsh vote) would suggest the…

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