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The most unpredictable election ever? Don’t believe it

Polls have their problems. But don’t buy into the panic about local variation making the result impossible to call. If we can only gauge the national vote share, explains a member of the exit poll team, the old swingometer could still prove its worth

By Stephen Fisher  

Photo: Claire Doherty/SIPA USA/PA Images

Voters are volatile. The two party system has suffered a two-pronged attack. Social media campaigns are bigger, with more micro-targeting. Fake news is on the rise. Many MPs have resigned, making it easier for challenger parties in their seats. Former cabinet ministers are standing as independents. There isn’t just one national election, but 650 different contests. Many constituencies will have close results, as the fragmentation of the vote means some candidates will…

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