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Why I bet £1000 that a no-deal Brexit will trigger recession

But hardline Leavers are always hesitant to put their money where their mouth is

By Jonathan Portes  

Photo: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire/PA Images

No deal? No problem—or, at least, no recession. According to the Financial Times, “the consensus is that the UK will avoid a recession in any scenario.” The February forecast from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research suggests that while no-deal would mean no growth to speak of in 2019, this would be stagnation rather than outright recession.

Some no-deal enthusiasts were quick to seize on this, with Jonathan Isaby of BrexitCentral tweeting “Another Project Fear prediction out of the window.”

I disagree. But there’s little…

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