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The next recession is a question of when, not if

The downturn could come in 2020, with implications for both the US presidential election and Brexit process

By George Magnus  

Photo: Fiona Hanson/PA Archive/PA Images

It’s not for nothing that economics is known as the dismal science. We are being urged to celebrate synchronised global economic growth again—but it’s not too soon to start thinking about the next recession.

Let’s start with the good news. If the United States expansion keeps going until July 2019, and it will, it will be 121 months old and America’s longest expansion since records began in 1854. The UK’s longest expansion was from the 1991 recession to the 2008 peak, and so we would have…

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