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Syrian missile attack: a statement of willingness to use force

But the military options to force Assad out of power remain at least as unpalatable as they were in 2013

by Justin Bronk / April 7, 2017 / Leave a comment
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A satellite photo of the Shayrat Airfield in Syria, released by the Pentagon ©USA TODAY Network/SIPA USA/PA Images

Last night’s US Navy cruise missile bombardment of the Syrian Air Force’s Shayrat airfield near the western city of Homs was, on the face of it, an immediate retaliatory strike against the squadron responsible for dropping chemical weapons—including the nerve agent Sarin—on civilians at Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province. Fifty-nine BGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs) were fired from two US Navy warships in the Eastern Mediterranean and are said to have targeted aircraft, hangers, fuel dumps, munitions stockpiles and radar installations at Shayrat. However, the effectiveness of this attack beyond pure symbolism is highly questionable.

Russia has previously used Shayrat as a forward operating base for helicopter gunships conducting missions alongside the Syrian Army, and has large number of specialists of various sorts embedded within the Syrian military. This meant that in order to avoid any possibility of inadvertently killing Russian military personnel in this large scale cruise missile strike, the US Military had to give the Russian command chain in Syria sufficient warning to evacuate personnel, critical equipment and serviceable aircraft that they might have had at Shayrat. Since Russia is closely allied with the Assad regime, it is almost inconceivable that this warning would not have been passed on to the Syrian Air Force—giving the latter time to evacuate its own serviceable aircraft, key mobile equipment and personnel from the base before the Tomahawks hit. Therefore, the US Navy has most likely expended over $100m in cruise missiles to bombard a mostly empty forward airbase. Granted, the Syrian Air Force will not have had time to remove everything of value, and the destruction of the airbase as a viable operating location until repairs can be affected will certainly be an operational blow to the regime in the Homs area. However, it is far from a paralysing strike and certainly will not be sufficient to force a major policy shift by Bashar al-Assad in the gruelling civil war.

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Comments

  1. Hugh Winter
    April 7, 2017 at 12:54
    A purely symbolic strike, but better than inaction - which would have appeared to condone the use of chemical weapons. It might deter Assad from doing it again. A useful gesture, therefore, but not one which points to a solution to the Syrian crisis.
  2. Serguei Semine, PhD
    April 8, 2017 at 03:19
    Russia West Relations There are three issues Russia and the West will never agree on. The West should drop these issues from the agenda, unless they are looking for confrontation. These strategic and necessary for Russia’s survival issues are: Crimea is an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” for Russia is the south , same as Japan is for the USA in the Far East. That is why it will always be “Russian”. Russia will never give up its Kuril Islands to Japan. If the islands are lost, the entire nuclear submarine fleet, based on Kamchatka Peninsula, will be blocked in without safe access to Pacific Ocean. Russia will do everything necessary to keep Syria pro-Russian. If control over Syria is lost, this would allow building of natural gas pipeline from Arab nations to Europe. Russia would lose control over Europe’s natural gas market, the main source of revenue for Russia’s state budget. Serguei Semine, PhD.

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About this author

Justin Bronk
Justin Bronk is Research Fellow for Airpower and Military Technology, RUSI

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