View from the commons—motion on Iraq: Coalition against Islamic State

While the result will be known shortly after five, it’s a foregone conclusion. Lots of very careful choreography has gone on here and the motion doctored to suit precisely what all parties will accept. Phone lines into the house were not being answered last night said one MP, meaning that no amendments could be added to the order paper.

The vote will allow air strikes on Iraq. The decision to leave Syria off the motion was down to Ed Miliband's inner circle, particularly Douglas Alexander—and also Stewart Wood, who didn't want action in either Syria or Iraq. They are the two biggest Labour for policy voices.

Cameron is not going to have a free ride today. Some of his backbenchers don't like the look of action in Iraq and in the ring round in the run up to this vote, a lot of them said they didn't support air strikes in Syria. There is a "straight up and down vote at five o'clock" says a senior aide to Miliband, even though there is the possibility of a manuscript amendment by a backbencher from one side or another. This is when a piece of paper might be passed to Bercow with an amendment on it, which he could then chose to accept—or not. But that remains a long shot.

The tactical argument against action in Syria is that, if you do knock out an Isis stronghold in one part of the country, you then have no control over who fills the vacuum. That is not the case in Iraq, where we have much more influence on who makes territorial gains arising from Isis being knocked out.