36 things that will happen if Britain crashes out of Europe with no deal

From manufacturing to pet passports, the disruption would be immense

by Jonathan Lis / July 27, 2018 / Leave a comment

Photo: NurPhoto/SIPA USA/PA Images

Future historians of Britain’s greatness, mark this week in your diary. The prime minister really has admitted that we will be stockpiling food and medicines in case of a no-deal Brexit.

Do not be fooled by the Brexiteers’ subtle rebrand of no deal as the “World Trade deal.” WTO terms would do immense damage to British industry. Not a single advanced economy in the world trades solely on them. Most important, the WTO only governs general trade frameworks—it has nothing to say on anything from aviation to food safety.

If “no deal” was the will of the people, here is a small selection of what they apparently willed.

1. First things first, the economy. The pound will almost certainly plummet, although it may not happen overnight as no deal would have been on the cards for some weeks before 30th March. Inflation is likely to rise sharply. Businesses will activate their contingency plans. The UK stops being seen as a reliable economic hub. More on all of this later.

2. Three million European Union citizens in the UK and one million Britons in the EU will lose all automatic rights and protections overnight. Simply, they will have no guaranteed legal status.

3. Planes will stop flying. Aviation is currently governed by the Single European Sky, European Aviation Safety Agency and aviation single market. You fall out of those, and pilots and planes lose their certification overnight. Ignore the people who think they are being original in pointing out that non-EU countries can fly planes to the EU. Non-EU countries aren’t voluntarily crashing out of their supervisory aviation mechanisms. Oh, and don’t even think about escaping to the United States. UK/US air travel is governed by an EU agreement too.

4. Food will rot. We import about half of our food and feed, and 70 per cent of that comes from the EU. The bosses of Calais and Dover have warned of 30-mile tailbacks and possible infrastructural collapse. Experts have already warned that supermarkets will soon run out of supplies. (Hence the stockpiling.)

5. On the subject of food, many farms will struggle immensely. Dairy tariffs average 40 per cent and meat tariffs can be much higher—so they won’t be exporting it to their largest market anymore.

6. Out of the single market and customs union, supply chains are severed overnight. That paralyses…

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Comments

NR_BUCHSBAUM
July 27, 2018 at 16:24
This is pure fear-mongering. Britain will start to import its foodstuffs from Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US, and food prices will drop as those more efficient farmers begin to replace subsidized European farmers in France, Italy and elsewhere in the EU. Britain is Germany's second largerst auto market in the world---they are not about to lose this market to the Japanese or Americans, so as in the recent Trump/ Juncker talks, Germany will force French resistance to the UK's success to back down in its own interests. Britain just needs a strong leader with backbone. The moeny the UK was willing to pay to the EU will go a long way to moderating the impact and meeting unexpected issues and problems. For one to be successful in negotiations, one must think that success is possible; defeatist attitudes yield defeat. It is disappointing that those who predicted doomsday if the majority voted to leave were so wrong, and they may be way off the mark once again. After, an EU without Britain does not have the power and influence it presently enjoys, and the major Commonwealth countries and the USA are going to be there for Britain as they always have been----an American view.
1. Gerry Q.
  August 5, 2018 at 12:05
  Indeed, 'an American view' that suggests a profound lack of understanding of anything related to the EU and the realities of the UK's position. Mindless sloganeering of the lowest order.
John D.
July 28, 2018 at 20:50
An excellent rant, NR-BUCHSBAUM. If only you had been able to find some evidence to counter even one of the thirty-six po8nts made.
Elizabeth T.
July 29, 2018 at 15:31
It is truly staggering to think that that list of all the problems to be overcome on leaving the EU were, apparently never sufficiently pointed out during the referendum Campaign. For surely they could have had an effect on a crucial number of thoughtful voters, to prevent all that coming to pass, in all probability in two years time. Poor Britain simply doesn't have clout enough alone to impose her "cake & eat it" fantasies on 27 other European states!
1. Gerry Q.
  August 5, 2018 at 12:01
  I fear the UK maxed out on its stock of 'thoughtful voters' on 23.6.2016 and it wasn't enough to stem the tide.