Politics

General election 2015: when to vote tactically

Polls suggest that a record number of people are considering voting on tactical grounds

May 05, 2015
This election is uncertain, but that doesn't mean you can't vote wisely. © Dominic Lipinski/PA Archive/Press Association Images
This election is uncertain, but that doesn't mean you can't vote wisely. © Dominic Lipinski/PA Archive/Press Association Images

How much does my vote count?

That depends on where you live. The collective votes of around 34m people who do not live in safe seats could hold the key to government. A marginal seat is an area where the incumbent party only holds a very narrow lead—and where their rivals focus a lot of their efforts. The Conservatives, for example, are trying to take St. Ives and Halifax on election night, as the Liberal Democrats and Labour hold vulnerable majorities of 1,719, and 1,472 votes respectively. Every seat matters, so many people might choose to block another party from winning by voting for their nearest rival, regardless of whether that party is their preferred choice. A recent ICM poll shows this form of tactical voting could occur in Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg's seat; Conservatives might vote Liberal Democrat to stop Labour from taking it. In response to a potential SNP landslide in Scotland, a YouGov poll found that almost half of Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters are willing to vote Labour in a close contest, in order to keep out the SNP and protect the Union. Conservative voters in Great Grimsby might try and defeat Labour candidate Melanie Onn by voting for Tory defector Victoria Ayling of Ukip as she looks to have a better chance of unseating Labour than the Conservatives.

What’s the current state of play?

There are a number of tools you can use to keep track of the current status of the election within your area. Lord Ashcroft has carried out the most in-depth constituency polling, so you could see if your area features on his list of election hotspots. In terms of deciding how much you like the individual candidates in your area, UK Parliament Report provides a comprehensive account of all parliamentary activity; as does www.theyworkforyou.co.uk, which gives a more detailed account of your MP's previous record, and the issues they have worked hardest on in parliament. If you want to see the CVs of all the candidates in your area, Democracy Club have created an easy tool. As an aside, if you are thinking of voting Green, and worried you may just be the only one, this tool will help you judge whether voting for the relatively minor party in your area is worth it.




Read more from the Prospect panel on the election:

Our guide to the party manifestos

What does Britain need from the next five years?




What are the risks?

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives stand much chance of winning an outright majority. If they don't, whichever party can cobble together the 323 votes needed to garner a majority in the House of Commons can form a government. Because of this, Labour and the Conservatives may have to show some flexibility when attempting to translate their election result into governance. If the Conservatives have the edge but don't win enough to govern by themselves, expect attempts by them to focus on another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, while an anti-Tory bloc led by Labour is formed. Both parties may try for a minority government, whereby they would have to fight for the votes to pass legislation on an issue-by-issue basis. The Liberal Democrats have promised to speak first with whichever party wins the most seats, but any deals will come with caveats, such as a refusal to be part of any deal that includes the support of Ukip. The SNP have promised to do everything they can to prevent a Conservative government, but so far, Labour has promised not to do any deals, either formal or informal, with the Scottish nationalists.

The 'legitimacy' question

In the case of a close election, where the margin of victory is within 15 to 20 seats, be prepared to hear the word "legitimacy" used by party members and political pundits. The main question here is: will the British public accept the legitimacy of a government formed and lead by the party that came second? As is often the case with matters of politics, the definition of the word legitimacy is not straightforward and the word takes on a different meaning and level of importance depending on who you ask. Those looking at it from a purely constitutional perspective believe that parliamentary legitimacy is all that is relevant: whichever party can command a majority in the Commons has a right to form a government. Simple. However, the general public may find it hard to stomach a party walking into a backroom meeting as the loser, and emerging as the winner.

Britain's most marginal seats

Hampstead and Kilburn: Labour majority, 42

North Warwickshire: Conservative majority, 54

Cambourne and Redruth: Conservative, 66

Bolton West: Labour, 92

Thurrock: Conservative, 92

Hendon: Conservative, 106

Oxford West and Abingdon: Conservative, 176

Solihull: Lib Dem, 175

Sheffield Central: Labour, 165