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Could Carswell’s defection to Ukip hand victory to Labour?

"Carswell’s almost certain by-election triumph could trigger a chain of events which leads to Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister"

By Peter Kellner  

Farage with his first defector Douglas Carswell, now Ukip MP for Clacton. © Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire/Press Association Images

 Unless Douglas Carswell’s campaign blows up, he should win the coming Clacton by-election at a canter. Almost twice as many people voted Ukip (48 per cent) as Conservative (25 per cent) in the area in this year’s European Parliament…

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