A former British ambassador to the European Union says that the best course of action now is to call Brexit offby Stephen Wall / November 15, 2018 / Leave a comment
Theresa May was quite right today, when she told the Commons that the commitment to avoid a hard Irish land border was made during the 2016 referendum campaign. Since the leading Brexiteers have carelessly abandoned most of the other promises they made to the electorate, it is hardly surprising that they should now attack May for failing to cast this one aside as well. But, apart from the dangerous dishonesty in abandoning the pledge, May was also correct in saying that without it there would have been no deal. Hence her statement that the available options were her deal, no deal or no Brexit.
In floating the possibility of “no Brexit,” May moved further than she has ever done from “Brexit means Brexit” towards recognising that a second referendum is a possibility. She may have said it to unnerve the Tory irreconcilables: back my deal that you hate or risk dissolving like the wicked witch of the west in the cold shower of a people’s vote. But the possibility of a second referendum looks very real.
Who knows what will now happen? Suppose, the Tory irreconcilables succeed in getting rid of May. A new leader will not be allowed by the EU to negotiate a different deal that reneges on the Irish border promise. And even the Tory faithful might hesitate to back a candidate who promised to his/her 160,000 electorate that, once installed as prime minister, s(he) would sell the remaining 66-odd million of us down the river by crashing out with no deal.
What if there was a general election provoked by deadlock in the House of Commons? It is hard to see May being the person to lead a split party into the campaign. Equally hard to see a successful campaign built around a Brexit policy which had been rejected by parliament. And would the Labour Party be standing on the Europe policy of Keir Starmer or that of Jeremy Corbyn? The most Labour seems likely to offer is “a better Brexit,” but no clear evidence as to how they would deliver it.
Jo Johnson was the small boy who shouted out that the emperor has no clothes. It is now plain for all to see that the only tangible “gain” from Brexit is control of EU migration, something that could be achieved by changes to our own social security…