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The EMU endgame

The likelihood of Emu starting on time in 1999 has increased during the past few weeks. But recent events suggest it is unlikely to be the "wide" Emu expected by the financial markets

By David Marsh   November 1997

A timely acceleration of European economic growth and a setback for the German opposition in local elections have lifted Helmut Kohl?s hopes of seeing economic and monetary union begin on time in 1999. On the other hand, much could still go wrong on the road to the euro. The recent rise in German interest rates and the fall of the Italian government of Romano Prodi place significant hurdles ahead of the “wide” Emu that the financial markets have been assuming will start in 1999.

The German interest rate rise was the first in more than five years. The Bundesbank…

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