UNITED STATES
Debt crisis summit
Both Democrats and Republicans are anxious to conclude negotiations on extending America’s borrowing limit of $14,300bn. If they fail to reach an agreement by 2nd August, the resulting downgrade of its credit rating may cause the US to default on its debt. Although both sides agree that any deal will involve substantial long-term fiscal tightening, divisions remain: Republicans oppose tax rises and Democrats are against cuts to healthcare services. Nevertheless, House majority leader Eric Cantor has said he is “cautiously optimistic” that Republican demands will be met.
SERBIA AND BOSNIA
A dark chapter revisited
Legal proceedings in the Hague against former Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladic may coincide with the 16th anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre on 11th July. The mass killing is the first legally established case of genocide in Europe since the Holocaust, and the UN tribunal has referred to the massacre as “unimaginable savagery… scenes from hell, written on the darkest pages of human history.” In previous years, some 30,000 people have visited Srebrenica to mark the anniversary.
SUDAN
Birth of a nation
July sees the official secession of the Republic of South Sudan, as well as a referendum on the governance of the war-torn region of Darfur which threatens to derail ongoing peace talks. The existing three-state government of North, South and West Darfur, created in 1994, made the region’s largest ethnic group, the Fur, a minority in all three states—a big grievance for Darfur’s rebels. But the vote is unlikely to affect the south’s secession, despite a rise in violence after the Sudanese government invaded the contested border region of Abyei in May.
AFGHANISTAN
Troop withdrawal
President Obama has indicated that a “summer of transition” in Afghanistan will begin in July and could lead to the withdrawal of up to 30,000 US troops by late 2012. David Cameron has said that 450 of Britain’s 10,000 troops will be brought home this year too, but Britain may speed up its departure if US commanders lead the way. Obama’s war strategy, outlined in December 2009, plans for a full transfer from Nato forces to Afghan security control by 2014.
THAILAND
Shinawatra returns
A general election on 3rd July will see the return of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to front-line politics. Shinawatra, exiled in 2006 after a military-backed coup, has remained popular among his red-shirt supporters, and his sister is running as the candidate for his populist Pheu Thai party against Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, installed by the army in 2008. The police will deploy 100,000 officers to oversee the vote. Last year, 92 people died in a stand-off between the red shirts and the army in Bangkok.
Debt crisis summit
Both Democrats and Republicans are anxious to conclude negotiations on extending America’s borrowing limit of $14,300bn. If they fail to reach an agreement by 2nd August, the resulting downgrade of its credit rating may cause the US to default on its debt. Although both sides agree that any deal will involve substantial long-term fiscal tightening, divisions remain: Republicans oppose tax rises and Democrats are against cuts to healthcare services. Nevertheless, House majority leader Eric Cantor has said he is “cautiously optimistic” that Republican demands will be met.
SERBIA AND BOSNIA
A dark chapter revisited
Legal proceedings in the Hague against former Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladic may coincide with the 16th anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre on 11th July. The mass killing is the first legally established case of genocide in Europe since the Holocaust, and the UN tribunal has referred to the massacre as “unimaginable savagery… scenes from hell, written on the darkest pages of human history.” In previous years, some 30,000 people have visited Srebrenica to mark the anniversary.
SUDAN
Birth of a nation
July sees the official secession of the Republic of South Sudan, as well as a referendum on the governance of the war-torn region of Darfur which threatens to derail ongoing peace talks. The existing three-state government of North, South and West Darfur, created in 1994, made the region’s largest ethnic group, the Fur, a minority in all three states—a big grievance for Darfur’s rebels. But the vote is unlikely to affect the south’s secession, despite a rise in violence after the Sudanese government invaded the contested border region of Abyei in May.
AFGHANISTAN
Troop withdrawal
President Obama has indicated that a “summer of transition” in Afghanistan will begin in July and could lead to the withdrawal of up to 30,000 US troops by late 2012. David Cameron has said that 450 of Britain’s 10,000 troops will be brought home this year too, but Britain may speed up its departure if US commanders lead the way. Obama’s war strategy, outlined in December 2009, plans for a full transfer from Nato forces to Afghan security control by 2014.
THAILAND
Shinawatra returns
A general election on 3rd July will see the return of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to front-line politics. Shinawatra, exiled in 2006 after a military-backed coup, has remained popular among his red-shirt supporters, and his sister is running as the candidate for his populist Pheu Thai party against Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, installed by the army in 2008. The police will deploy 100,000 officers to oversee the vote. Last year, 92 people died in a stand-off between the red shirts and the army in Bangkok.
