It had to happen. The almost saintly aura around Barack Obama is taking on a more realistic hue. It began with a phone call from Obama to his pastor in Chicago, Reverend Jeremiah White of the Trinity United Church, to disinvite him from appearing on stage at Obama's formal announcement of his bid for the presidency. A chum of the black Muslim leader Louis Farrakhan, White runs a very African church, preaches black nationalism and whites are less than welcome in the pews. Or, as the reverend put it, "When [Obama's] enemies find out that in 1984 I went with Farrakhan to Tripoli to visit Colonel Gaddafi, a lot of his Jewish support will dry up quicker than a snowball in hell." Obama prayed with White just before his announcement, but kept him offstage. Then Obama moved fast and made a stirring pro-Israel speech to Aipac, the hard core of the Jewish lobby.
Israel is "our strongest ally in the region and its only established democracy," Obama said. "We must preserve our total commitment to our unique defence relationship with Israel by fully funding military assistance and continuing work on the Arrow and related missile defence programmes." This, he went on, would help Israel "deter missile attacks from as far as Tehran and as close as Gaza." He called Iran "one of the greatest threats to the United States, to Israel, and to world peace," and said that, "we should take no option, including military action, off the table." The lobby was duly impressed. The Washington correspondent of Israeli daily Ha'aretz said that Obama "sounded as strong as Clinton, as supportive as Bush, as friendly as Giuliani. At least rhetorically, Obama passed any test anyone might have wanted him to."
This stance came as a surprise to one of Obama's old supporters, Ali Abunimah, a founder of the pro-Palestine site Electronic Intifada (electronicintifada.net). "Since I first saw Obama speak, I have met him about half a dozen times, often at Palestinian and Arab-American events in Chicago, including a May 1998 community fundraiser at which Edward Said was the keynote speaker," Abunimah recalls. "In 2000, when Obama unsuccessfully ran for congress, I heard him speak at a campaign fundraiser. On that occasion and others, he was forthright in his criticism of US middle east policy and called for an even-handed approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The last time I spoke to him was in the winter of 2004 at a gathering in Chicago's Hyde Park neighbourhood. He was in the midst of a primary campaign to secure the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat he now occupies. Polls showed him trailing. When I greeted him, he volunteered, 'Hey, I'm sorry I haven't said more about Palestine right now, but we are in a tough primary race. I'm hoping when things calm down I can be more up front." He sure is up front now.
The curse of Shrum continues
The surge in support for former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani looks like lasting. This may be the result of the electoral college mathematics that Democratic strategist Bob Shrum recently outlined: the Democrats can only win the White House if they keep California and then win Ohio. California has voted solidly for Democratic candidates since 1992. But with a Republican governor in Arnold Schwarzenegger, California might be in play next year and Giuliani looks like the one Republican with a chance to take this biggest of all safe Democratic states. Pro-choice on abortion and friendly to gays, he's liberal enough on social issues.
The problem is that under California state rules, only registered Republicans can vote in the primary, and they tend to be more conservative. But the last poll of the state's likely primary voters showed Giuliani holding a 41 to 23 per cent lead over John McCain among Republicans, with Mitt Romney at 8 per cent and unannounced potential candidate Newt Gingrich at 13 per cent.
Shrum, by the way, brings out his memoirs this summer, recounting his trials as a Democratic strategist who lost every presidential campaign he ran. The curse of Shrum may even have sunk John Edwards's chances of getting more than the VP nomination last time; Shrum confesses that he talked Edwards out of his own conviction that he should vote against giving Bush authority to take military action against Saddam Hussein. "I was wrong," Shrum writes. "He was right. And it can still hurt."
Good news for advertising
The early obsession with next year's presidential election is mouthwatering news for television stations. The figures are in for last year, and politicians came second only to car manufacturers among national advertisers on local television. Ten years ago, they didn't even reach the top five. This year, according to an analysis by Bear, Stearns and Co, the television industry expects to rake in over $700m because of the horribly early start to the campaign. And by the time the 2008 elections are over, the total spend on national and local television advertising will be a record $2.5bn. For the television advertising business, beset by competition from the internet, politics is about the only sector that is still growing.
