Will president Trump get anything done?

The entrails of Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s presidential election will doubtless be examined by analysts for some time to come as commentators seek an explanation for the unexpected result. Although no single factor generated Trump’s success, three elements were powerful determinants of his victory.

The first was the extent of the anger in parts of a deeply divided America; groups which felt forgotten by government and marginalised by the globalisation of the American economy, as well as fearful about the future of a society where demographic change threatened their view of the country’s identity and their place in it. Here Barack Obama’s enthusiastic campaigning for Hillary Clinton and the speculation about a Latino surge may have reinforced the feelings of alienation, especially on the part of many white working class voters.

The second element was Trump’s ability to appeal to this constituency by tapping into fears generated by immigration, terrorism and economic uncertainty and by his ability to project himself as the outsider, promising change which involved a revolt against government and a cleansing of the Washington “swamp.” The third factor was the underestimate of the unraveling of the Democratic coalition, as evidenced by Clinton’s failure to enthuse fully important groups who had turned out for Obama, some of whom had backed Bernie Sanders in the primaries. These groups included millennials and African Americans as well as white working class voters. Putting together a coalition of voters to win election is one thing, governing quite another. The constitution with its separation of powers places enormous constraints on any president, and the polarisation of American politics in recent years has made the system of checks and balances more difficult to operate. Trump comes to the White House with the advantage of a Republican House and Senate. Even if the Republican Party in Congress contains critics of Trump, this will give him leverage at least for the first two years of his presidency. And with one immediate vacancy on the Supreme Court, Trump is well positioned to shape it for the foreseeable future.

These headline advantages are not, however, the whole story. Trump has an agenda which has raised expectations about jobs and the economy and he has committed himself to reform of the Affordable Care Act, taxation and the immigration system as well as to additional defence spending. This agenda will not be easy to implement. A president needs skill and flexibility to make bargains and compromises to advance his agenda with patience and subtlety. Trump comes to the presidency with no governmental experience and it is unclear how far his business success can translate across to work the Washington he ran against. Moreover, to an extent which is bound to alarm America’s allies, he has no expertise in foreign policy and has thus far shown little interest in acquiring any deep understanding of international relations. Much will depend on the president’s own character and the choice of close policy advisers but on these issues there is as yet little clarity.

The more pessimistic projection suggests that he will find the need to accommodate different interests and perspectives infuriatingly obstructive and will seek to circumvent established procedures and institutions. The optimistic scenario suggests that he is a pragmatist who will want to make a success of his period in office and will learn quickly the art of the possible. Whether that will be enough to enable Trump to heal the social and political divisions he faces—or to restore faith in American democracy—remains an open question.