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The transition has ended. But what’s happening in the parallel universe where we never left the EU?

Everything and nothing would be different

By Rachel Sylvester  

He could have won in 2016—but the victory would have been short-lived. Photo: Yui Mok/PA Archive/PA Images

Shortly after the UK voted to Leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, Dominic Cummings wrote a blog. “Reality has branching histories, not ‘a big why’,” the director of the Vote Leave campaign wrote. “The branching histories are forgotten” in retrospect “and the actual branch taken, often because of some relatively trivial event casting a huge shadow, seems overwhelmingly probable.”

But Cummings argued that the “cold reality” of the Brexit referendum was that the eventual outcome was far from inevitable. If Michael Gove had stayed out of the campaign then Vote Leave would almost certainly have collapsed or been…

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