Britain is a different country to the one it was in the 1950s
In 70 years of election watching I have seen vast changes and remarkable continuities in the conduct of campaigns and the reporting of results. The continuities are worth stressing. Electoral law remains much the same. The Electoral Commission, established in 2000, has made few significant innovations in the routines at polling stations. The lowering of the franchise to 18 and postal voting are the most significant developments.The table opposite shows the far reaching changes over 60 years. Few were due to conscious political action. They just happened, irrespective of government or party policies. For the most part, the figures speak for themselves, but some stand out:
• Population up 20 per cent
• Longevity up 13 years
• Non-white population up from 0.3 per cent to 16 per cent
• Home ownership up from 29 per cent to 69 per cent
• Television ownership jumps from nothing to saturation
• People feeling “working-class” declines from 47 per cent to 31 per cent
• Internet usage leaps from nothing to 75 per cent
• Women workers up from 31 per cent to 65 per cent
• School leavers in continuing education up from 6 per cent to 47 per cent
• Heavy industry workers down from 39 per cent to 10 per centYear by year the politicians have had to adapt to a different electorate (although they haven’t always noticed the difference). The electorate has become more volatile. In the 1960s, almost 90 per cent of major party supporters told the British Electoral Survey that they supported their party “very strongly” or “fairly strongly.” Forty years later, that percentage had almost halved. In 1950, over 50 percent of the electorate claimed to have been canvassed on their doorstep. In 2001, that figure was more than halved.In my lifetime there has never been an election in which the outcome was as unpredictable as it is this year. A recent comparison of 12 separate academic surveys found six putting the Conservatives ahead on seats and four favouring Labour, with two tied.
How Britain has changed 1950-51/2010-14:
[gallery ids="32786,32787,32788,32789,32790,32791,32792,32793,32794,32795,32796,32797"]
However, it is worth remembering that unexpected results have been the norm rather than the exception. In 10 of the last 19 general elections, the outcome has defied the prophets: in 1945 there was a wholly unexpected Labour landslide; in 1951, an unexpectedly narrow Labour win; in 1959, an unexpectedly large Conservative triumph; in 1964, an unexpectedly narrow Labour win; in 1966, an unanticipated Labour triumph; in 1970, a Labour defeat nobody expected; in February 1974, Labour came out with a lead few predicted, while the election in October of the same year saw a narrow Labour win; in 1992, the Conservatives won unexpectedly, while in 1997 few predicted the size of the Labour landslide.
Except for three contests—Feburary 1974, 1992 and May 2010—every general election since the war has produced a clear result after 24 hours of vote counting. But now, for the first time, it is almost certain that we shall not know for several days who will govern us for the next four years. Several Conservatives will lose seats to Labour thanks to the loss of votes to Ukip, while Labour may blame the Greens for the loss of a handful of seats. Despite the plethora of polls, we are more ignorant than ever before about our likely rulers for the next five years.
How Britain has changed 1950-51/2010-14:
[gallery ids="32786,32787,32788,32789,32790,32791,32792,32793,32794,32795,32796,32797"]
However, it is worth remembering that unexpected results have been the norm rather than the exception. In 10 of the last 19 general elections, the outcome has defied the prophets: in 1945 there was a wholly unexpected Labour landslide; in 1951, an unexpectedly narrow Labour win; in 1959, an unexpectedly large Conservative triumph; in 1964, an unexpectedly narrow Labour win; in 1966, an unanticipated Labour triumph; in 1970, a Labour defeat nobody expected; in February 1974, Labour came out with a lead few predicted, while the election in October of the same year saw a narrow Labour win; in 1992, the Conservatives won unexpectedly, while in 1997 few predicted the size of the Labour landslide.
Except for three contests—Feburary 1974, 1992 and May 2010—every general election since the war has produced a clear result after 24 hours of vote counting. But now, for the first time, it is almost certain that we shall not know for several days who will govern us for the next four years. Several Conservatives will lose seats to Labour thanks to the loss of votes to Ukip, while Labour may blame the Greens for the loss of a handful of seats. Despite the plethora of polls, we are more ignorant than ever before about our likely rulers for the next five years.
