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Should you believe the polls?

The Conservative lead is greater than any polling miss in history

By Chris Hanretty  

Prime Minister Theresa May walks during a campaign stop in Mevagissey, Cornwall ©DYLAN MARTINEZ/WPA Rota/Press Association Images

After the 2015 general election and the 2016 European Union referendum, many people are sceptical of opinion polls.

That scepticism is warranted. In 2015, the polls got the gap between Labour and the Conservatives wrong by six and a half percentage points. Last year, an average of referendum polls put Remain two points ahead when it finished two points behind.

Neither polling miss can be explained away by invoking the “margin of error,”…

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