It will only support a broken systemby Alexander Hitchcock / January 18, 2017 / Leave a comment
If the winter healthcare crisis seems acute this year, imagine how it would feel if the NHS didn’t exist. Figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility released yesterday show that, on the current trajectory, our spending on healthcare cannot be sustained. It is projected to rise from 6.9 per cent of GDP in 2021-22 to 12.6 per cent of GDP in 2066-67. This rise cannot be explained by any single reason, but a significant driver is that people are living longer, with more long-term health conditions.
The time-honoured response is to argue for more money. This dominated the Brexit debate and is supported by people across the political spectrum. If so, yesterday’s OBR figures beg the question: what do we want to cut? Social care, which will be 2 per cent of GDP in 50 years? Education, which will be 4 per cent?
Yesterday’s projections should provide fresh impetus for ministers looking to deliver an NHS that can meet the needs of 21st-century patients. The government has an ambition to deliver more care outside of hospitals, but recent Sustainability and Transformation Plans have focused largely on meeting deficits in NHS trusts.
More money will only support a broken system. A new approach is needed. One answer is to keep people out of the system in the first instance. An estimated 63m GP appointments (17 per cent of the total) are delivered to the “worried well.” Mobile apps, some driven by artificial intelligence, can triage these patients to information or self-care, freeing up room for GPs to deliver care to patients otherwise waiting two weeks or more.