Ed Miliband: how can he show he's up to the job?

Ed Miliband’s problems remain. He has survived his immediate crisis and will almost certainly lead Labour into next year’s election. His challenge is to turn round his terrible ratings.

Perhaps the most alarming YouGov finding from the past fortnight was that only 34 per cent of people who voted Labour in 2010 think he is up to the job of Prime Minister, while more, 42 per cent do not think this. As every scenario for Labour becoming the largest party next May depends on keeping the loyalty of those who supported the party four years ago, it is vital to persuade them of Miliband’s qualities. That means working out what it is about him that is turning so many last-time Labour voters off.

To do that, I have been looking at the latest results from one of YouGov’s tracker questions. We list a number of positive attributes and ask people to consider each party leader in turn and say which attributes they possess. We should note that we ask people to choose from a list; we do not ask about each one separately. People can select as many as they wish but, in practice pick those they feel most strongly about. In practice, 30 per cent or more is excellent, 20-29 per cent good, 10-19 per cent middling, below 10 per cent poor.

These are the figures for each of the three main party leaders, as judged by the people who voted for their party four years ago.



Cameron has excellent scores on three things (sticks to what he believes in, honesty, good in a crisis), Miliband on two (in touch, and honesty), Clegg on none of them. Indeed, if we add together “none of these” and “don’t know,” 59 per cent of those who voted Lib Dem four years ago can find nothing good to say about Clegg today. Miliband’s figures are a bit better, but not great—46 per cent; and even Cameron (34 per cent) can’t be overjoyed that one in three people who voted for him to be Prime Minister won’t ascribe any of the eight qualities to him.

But, returning to Miliband, it is clear where is weakness lies: the tiny number of Labour voters who think he is strong or decisive. (He also does badly on “good in a crisis” and “natural leader”—but, for the sake of argument, let’s attribute these to his limited opportunities to display crisis and leadership skills from the opposition benches.) The fact that Clegg does equally badly on these measures is no comfort.

So, Miliband’s problem does not seem to be empathy or honesty. I doubt either that it’s much to do with policy. It’s about his character, and whether he has the toughness and strength of purpose to handle the challenges that national leadership requires.

Perhaps he can learn from Neil Kinnock and Tony Blair. Both acquired public respect by taking risks vanquishing tough oppponents: Kinnock by fighting and defeating Militant in the mid-Eighties, Blair by securing the party’s agreement to abandon the commitment in in its constitution to abolish capitalism.

With less than six months to go to next May’s election, Miliband’s room for manoeuvre is limited. But if he can find, and win, a battle that takes true courage to fight, that could do him more good than anything else to become Prime Minister next May.

Any ideas?