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Does Labour’s poll rise show it could have won with a different leader?

The party has a history of picking the wrong person for the job

By Peter Kellner  

©Chris Radburn/PA Wire/PA Images

Here is a thought experiment. Suppose that the recent narrowing of the Conservative lead continues. The four polls conducted since the launch of the Tory manifesto report an average Conservative lead of 11 per cent. Some, perhaps all, of the narrowing may be a short-lived response to the “dementia tax” headlines. Maybe the gap will widen again, following the prime minister’s “clarification”—or U-turn—on capping social care costs; we shall see. But suppose we end up on 8th June with the Tories seven points ahead of…

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