The croupier takes too muchby Edward Chancellor / February 20, 2003 / Leave a comment
Published in February 2003 issue of Prospect Magazine
The croupier’s take
The greatest problem facing equity investors today is not the bear market or the weakness of the global economy. Nor has it anything to do with the possibility of war, high levels of corporate and consumer indebtedness, or any of the other problems one reads about regularly in the business pages. The real problem is the low levels of expected returns for most stock market investors. This is due primarily to the high levels of fees extracted by a bloated and parasitic financial services industry. Charlie Munger, the right-hand man of Warren Buffett, refers to these fees as the “croupier’s take.” Let us attempt to gauge its size.
As a starting point, I suggest that the stock market’s future return will be 5 per cent after inflation. This figure is somewhat lower than the historical average but appears prudent in the post-bubble environment. The croupier’s take begins at the corporate level. First, we have the extraordinary compensation of senior executives in the form of stock options. In the US, according to Standard & Poor’s, these were equal to 20 per cent of reported earnings in the 12 months ending June 2002. Bang goes one fifth of expected shareholder returns. We estimate, very roughly, that the fees paid by corporations to investment banks for mergers and acquisitions and other services knock a further 0.5 percentage point off expected returns.