Hillary Clinton is panicking about the rules of the Democratic Iowa caucus, which takes place on 3rd January. Voting takes place over several rounds, and delegates can switch their support to another candidate if their first choice is knocked out. After the first round, any candidate who gets less than 15 per cent of the vote is eliminated. That almost certainly means that the second-tier candidates, like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich, will get knocked out in the first round. But between them they account for about 25 per cent of the first-choice vote. A recent CBS/New York Times poll found John Edwards was the second choice of 30 per cent of supporters of these candidates, with Barack Obama at 27 per cent and Clinton just 14 per cent. So even if Clinton came out ahead in the first round of voting, she could come third in the second round, and be eliminated.
But in this event, Clinton could ask her supporters to vote tactically and cast their second-preference votes for Edwards, who poses less of a threat than Obama in the next battleground of New Hampshire. Edwards has only 16 per cent of the New Hampshire vote, while Obama has 24 per cent and Clinton 33 per cent (according to an average of the main polls put together by the website RealClearPolitics). So even if she loses Iowa, Clinton could potentially prevent Obama from winning and carrying his momentum into New Hampshire. But New Hampshire is tricky, because registered independents can vote in either the Republican or the Democratic primary, and they make up 40 per cent of the vote.
The Dems aim at the senate again
If the Dems win five more seats in the Senate next year, they'll reach the threshold of 60 votes needed to overcome Republican filibusters. Of the nine Republican seats up for re-election, there are four where polls suggest the Democrats could unseat incumbents elected in Bush's 2002 landslide: John Sununu (New Hampshire), Susan Collins (Maine), Gordon Smith (Oregon) and Norman Coleman (Minnesota). All have been the targets of hostile television ads this year over their support for the Iraq war. The ads were paid for by the liberal Democratic group MoveOn, which has George Soros's megabucks behind it. Coming at the usual dead time for political ads, they have been remarkably effective, eroding the senators' approval ratings and forcing them to spend on counter-ads. MoveOn tried this tactic on selected congressional seats before the 2006 mid-terms, and successfully softened up those Republicans for their eventual defeat. The key to the Senate campaigns is that after the early guerilla warfare from MoveOn, the mainstream Democrats plan to pile in with a flood of cash during the last weeks and outspend the Republicans in the air war. They have the money; so far this year the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has hauled in $42m while its Republican counterpart has raised $23m.
Who do the wealthy vote for?
After a century of being the party of capital, representing American business and the country club, the Republicans may have lost that title. The very conservative Heritage Foundation claims in a new study that the Democrats are now the party of the rich. It found that more than half of America's wealthiest households were located in the 18 states where the Dems hold both Senate seats, and that Dems represent 58 per cent of the wealthiest third of the 435 congressional districts. But of the 167 districts with median household income higher than the national figure of $48,201, the Democrats had 84 and the Republicans 83—too close to call, surely.
All Romney, all the time
To see campaign ad saturation in action, look at New Hampshire, where the only statewide commercial television station is WMUR. Since September, when he began spending over $100,000 a week, Mitt Romney alone has poured over $1m into WMUR's coffers—that's more than one ad per hour, day and night. Clinton and Giuliani are now catching up fast.
Moonlite bunnies for Ron Paul
Dennis Hof, owner of America's best-known legal brothel, the Moonlite Bunny Ranch in Nevada, has endorsed Texan congressman Ron Paul for president. Paul is the most libertarian of the Republican candidates, and has amazed the pundits by raising $9m—probably because he is the only Republican who demands instant withdrawal from Iraq. Hof has promised: "I'll get all the Bunnies together, and we can raise him some money. I'll put up a collection box outside the door."
McCain keeps a stiff upper lip
It's odd behaviour for a presidential candidate, but John McCain doesn't like to talk about his son's service in Iraq. Jimmy, 18, joined the marines last year and has just been promoted. Time ran a story when he enlisted, though McCain tried to persuade them not to. McCain waves away questions about Jimmy, in contrast to his fellow Annapolis graduate Jim Webb, who won his Virginia Senate seat last year after campaigning in his serving son's old combat boots. McCain has privately told friends, "The boy's under enough pressure in the field as it is."
