Brussels diary

Chris Patten falls silent
October 19, 2002

An inconvenient war

It would be an exaggeration to say that official Brussels is eagerly awaiting the outbreak of hostilities with Iraq. In fact, it would be a downright lie. As well as the usual worries about international chaos, Islamic terrorism and US imperialism, there is the disquieting thought that global conflagration may overshadow the next two EU summits, which are meant to nail down the enlargement of the union. And all the exhalations at the European constitutional convention about the need for a single European foreign policy may get an embarrassing reality check if the EU's leading nations continue squabbling among themselves about what to do about George Bush-sorry, make that Saddam Hussein. An insight into the mind-set of the average worker-bee at the commission was provided by the announcement that the European school in Brussels would hold a commemorative service for 9/11. No sooner was this announced than both the school and the European commission were deluged with e-mailed protests. Two lines of dissent emerged. First, the attacks on America were nothing to do with Europe-why "privilege" this particular tragedy over any other? Second, how dare you make our children targets for terrorist attack? Who says the Americans have the monopoly on hysteria? Another sign of the general mood in Brussels has come with the widespread circulation-by e-mail-of a hilarious video extract from the French version of Spitting Image. It features Bush and Sylvester Stallone singing, to the tune of "We are the world," "We fuck the world etc." The e-mail appears to have originated in the spokesman's service of the commission. So much for all those ritual expressions of support.

Chris Patten falls silent

Most Eurocrats are going to have to enjoy letting off steam in private about the Bush administration, because as the chances of war increase there is a growing feeling that the EU is going to have to fall in line. Gerhard Schr?der's denunciations of America's approach to Iraq are widely assumed in Brussels to be electioneering. The policymakers here think Schr?der will change his tune if and when he has secured re-election-although given the increasing stridency of the German chancellor's pronouncements, this may be more difficult than the Bruxellois reckon. Meanwhile, Chris Patten, who made some pretty waspish comments after the "axis of evil" speech and who wrote a scathing op-ed for the Washington Post attacking the "Europe is antisemitic" thesis, has gone quiet. That is no accident. Whatever his private reservations about American policy on Iraq, Patten has no desire to be labelled an anti-American. Some of his colleagues worry that he may have already gone too far. Javier Solana was in America when Patten's article appeared. He is said to have remarked, "This is a brilliant piece. It's exactly what I think. It should never have been written." But Patten's article may have had an impact. Certainly the flow of op-ed articles accusing the Europeans of yearning for a new final solution seems to have slowed.

Robert Kagan-popular Euro-basher

Meanwhile Robert Kagan-author of a much-discussed piece on the ideological gap between Europe and the US (Prospect, August 2002)-is bemused to find himself Brussels's latest celebrity. Kagan moved here a couple of years ago, following his wife, who is the deputy American ambassador to Nato-and has been quietly working away on a book on US foreign policy. His article, which has been read avidly all around Brussels, has made Kagan a hot date-the Eurocrats get a pleasurable shudder of horror when they meet a real-life American neo-conservative. Kagan has also had the misfortune of having his phone number circulated around the BBC-and is discovering just how many current affairs programmes that hydra-headed organisation has. He remains polite and jovial. But his mates back in Washington say that he is complaining about how difficult it is to get any work done, what with Monica from BBC Wales constantly ringing him up.

Prodi vs Berlusconi

Mention Romano Prodi to people on the European circuit and you are likely to get a resigned shrug. The president of the commission has been more or less written off. But members of Prodi's immediate circle have not given up; indeed they are nurturing dreams that their man may yet be invited to serve a second term. Such an idea would have most of the current generation of European political leaders spluttering into their teacups. But Prodi's people think that if agreement is reached at the end of the year to enlarge the union, the Prodi commission will have a solid record to boast of: enlargement, the successful launch of the euro and maybe even the framing of a European constitution? Even so, Prodi still seems pretty friendless. Even his home country is now run by a sworn enemy, Silvio Berlusconi. As a result, an alternative line of speculation has it that Prodi will resign early from the commission to return to Italian politics and slay the Berlusconi dragon. The two men can barely stand to be in the same room. One of Prodi's team recalls a moment a few years ago when the commission president was due to enter a hotel lobby in Italy, only to meet one of his advance guard rushing out and hissing: "Berlusconi's in there." The commission president turned smartly on his heel.