Europe is whispering a prayer for Monsieur Blair. Nothing personal, but the prospect of Hogg, Howard, Portillo and Rifkind returning for five more years is too awful to contemplate. There is only one worse nightmare: that Tony Blair turns out just like John Major, a nice man with good intentions blown away by events.
Europe craves for a strongman in Britain. Someone who can take a decision and stick to it for longer than a week. That is why Delors, Kohl and Mitterrand had a love-hate relationship with Margaret Thatcher. They knew where she stood even if they disagreed with her. She acted as a lightning rod for their grand ambitions. John Major is the proverbial cleft stick.
Blair has flashed his smile in Bonn, Paris and Brussels. He has made all the right noises about being co-operative. But he is still vague on detail about New Labour's policy toward the EU. It's the same "Trust me" tune which he's playing in the UK election campaign.
The good news for New Labour is that Europe will give Blair the benefit of the doubt. The goodwill over here can be measured in buckets. Last year's phoney beef war captured Tory policy towards Europe in all its condescending, bloody-minded petulance.
Besides, Blair has one advantage over Major. He belongs to a club, the European socialists. The idea of Major joining the federalist centre-right Christian Democrats has always been taboo to all Tories except Chris Patten.
New Labour can expect a honeymoon in Europe, but will it amount to more than a few one-night stands? Chirac and Kohl are not easily suckered. They want to know how different a Blair cabinet would be from the present Tory line-up.
There are parallels between Gordon Brown and Kenneth Clarke, Robin Cook and Malcolm Rifkind. Brown and Clarke are instinctive pro-Europeans who have probably seen their chance to be leaders of their own party go by. Cook and Rifkind are instinctively hostile to the single currency, still cherish ambitions to head their party and are ready to play to the sceps on the backbenches.
Under Clarke, HM Treasury, long dubious about the whole Emu project, has staged the greatest conversion since Paul (Johnson). Yet the FO, supposedly stuffed with Euro-federasts, has bent with the wind and followed Rifkind.
Assuming New Labour wins, the trend seems likely to continue at the FO-unless someone can persuade Cook and Blair that a change of government offers a once-in-a-decade opportunity for British diplomacy to move from defence to offence in Europe.
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enter sir john kerr, our man in Washington. Kerr, a former ambassador to the EU, had his eye on the post of cabinet secretary with wider powers for co-ordination of policy, but some people in the Labour camp thought the job description was a recipe for self-aggrandisement.
Kerr settled for permanent secretary at the Foreign Office and is due to take over from Sir John Coles in the autumn. At least, Blair and Cook have been big enough to recognise that his insider skills could prove useful in the next year. It will be a momentous period in the EU's 40-year history.
Between mid-1997 and mid-1998, EU leaders must take decisions on the reform of institutions and decision making at the EU's intergovernmental conference; the opening of enlargement negotiations with countries from eastern Europe; the selection of countries for the single currency; and the preparation of negotiations on a new EU budget.
The IGC is supposed to be wrapped up by the mid-June summit in Amsterdam. It is Labour's (mis)fortune that decisions on Emu and enlargement will take place under a British presidency from 1st January to 30th June next year.
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if blair is smart, he will settle the IGC on schedule in Amsterdam to free up time for the serious stuff on Emu and enlargement. The deal is obvious: Britain will get an opt-out on new provisions on border controls in return for signing up to the social chapter. There will be a modest extension of majority voting, but a reweighting of voting powers in favour of the bigger member states such as France, Germany, Italy and the UK will protect their position.
The challenge is how to finesse monetary union. Blair has little appetite for signing up to the single currency within one year of taking office. He is more likely to play for time. Europe will play along, as long as the Brits do not postpone participation indefinitely.
If Italy and Spain fail to make the first wave, a British decision to stay out could soften the blow. Germany, meanwhile, would be thankful for launching Emu without dodgy Club Med countries. Everybody could join in 2002 when notes and coins are due to circulate.
Here is a hard truth for the Tory nationalists. New Labour's "wait and join" policy may not be courageous, but it is sensible. That's more than can be said for the last 18 months.
