One country, two systems: why this election will be a win for the SNP, whatever the result

When the SNP threw their weight behind a December election, and effectively press-ganged Labour into doing so too, it was not immediately obvious what they hoped to achieve. Labour accused them of wanting to hand Boris Johnson Brexit on a plate. There was also dissent in their own ranks. But the SNP’s move makes much more sense when seen outside of the usual frames of Westminster politics.

Scottish politics is like three-dimensional chess: at any one time, the left-right and unionist-independence dimensions are simultaneously in play, and the SNP’s hegemony is based on mastering this never-ending game. For the SNP, Westminster elections are about leverage and legitimacy as much as they are about potentially taking the keys to Downing Street.

If the Tories win a majority, it will strengthen the SNP narrative of diverging political cultures and London’s disregard for Scotland’s interests. If the SNP end up as kingmakers in a Labour administration, on the other hand, Nicola Sturgeon has a shopping list of concessions ranging from control of energy policy and revenues to another independence referendum.

Domestic problems

The election is also welcome news for a party lacking energy and dynamism in domestic government. There is an internal split in the SNP between gradualists who want another legal referendum and those eager for a unilateral declaration of independence, as well as between Nordic social democrats and the Celtic tiger crowd of small-time businessmen and friends of international capital who think Scotland should position itself as a low-tax haven for overseas investors and wealth creators.

At the same time, the SNP is dealing with a raft of minor and major scandals. The Scottish Government is currently paying £1.4m a month to an offshore firm represented by the PR company of economic advisor Andrew Wilson for a privately financed children’s hospital that is so poorly built it cannot be used. Despite the climate emergency it is still very much in bed with the oil industry, too—this summer, it missed its own emissions targets once again.

Meanwhile, its former leader will shortly face trial for allegations of rape and sexual assault. Along with shambolic rail services and clandestine deals with the US military to use a government-owned airport, it is little wonder the party are happy to fight an election almost entirely on an anti-Johnson ticket. Whatever morally dubious things they have done, Johnson knocks them out the park.

No Ruth, No Party

The SNP also know none of the unionist parties is in any shape to take more than a few seats each in Scotland, not least the leaderless Tories who are still pushing Ruth Davidson on their election materials despite her resignation from the leadership and a minor lobbying scandal with shades of Cash for Questions.

The party are reportedly bracing for a 1997 style wipe-out in Scotland. In an attempt to show the Tories are serious about Scotland, Michael Gove recently appeared before the Scottish Parliament’s Finance and Constitution Committee, provoking open derision  for his lack of understanding of the principal of legislative consent which requires Holyrood approval for UK legislation on Brexit.

What was soft conciliatory unionism after the 2014 independence referendum has morphed into hardline flag waving and an increasing disregard for Holyrood in Downing Street which cannot be mended by Gove’s Scottish birth certificate and photocalls with Aberdonian fishermen.

Labour cannot be discounted completely; if they are lucky, they will fend off the SNP and keep hold of their promising young MPs Paul Sweeney and Danielle Rowley in Glasgow and Midlothian, who are both well-liked and vital to the future of the labour movement in Scotland, independent or not.

The Lib Dems may see some minor lift too, but despite Jo Swinson’s position as a sitting Scottish MP the party is still moribund north of the border and there is an outside chance the SNP may even unseat her with a good enough vote swing.

A tale of two referendums

Strathclyde University’s talismanic psephologist John Curtice has suggested a Labour-SNP confidence and supply agreement could be on the cards. Letting the Tories in would be political suicide for the SNP, who despite being no stranger to aspects of Tory economic policy go into every election on a strongly anti-Tory platform. They also want to avoid memories of 1979, when they indirectly helped the first Thatcher government into power.

That doesn’t mean their backing would be unconditional, however. Support for a Labour government would likely require a commitment to a new EU referendum and horse-trading over a precious Section 30 order from Westminster for a second independence referendum. Even if Labour refused, some significant deepening of devolution would be on the cards, continuing the drip-drip trend of Scotland gaining more and more autonomy with each SNP victory.

In Scotland it is a well-known maxim that devolution is a process, not an event, and even without a new indyref this election will likely mark a further parting of the ways between Scotland and Westminster. The real question is whether this will be through grudging consent and democratic process with Labour—or all-out war with the radicalised shell of the Tory party.