Immigration: Not as important as the politicians think?

As next year’s general election draws closer, which issues matter most to voters? On the face of it, the answer is simple. YouGov regularly shows voters a list of 13 domestic issues and asks them to choose which two or three “are the most important facing the country.”

Two stand out: immigration and asylum (56 per cent in our latest survey, this week) and the economy (50 per cent). Some distance behind are health (38 per cent) and welfare benefits (23 per cent). Nothing else reaches 20 per cent. So some of the issues that generate dramatic headlines, such as Europe, housing, crime, education and taxation, are minority concerns.

However, if we stop there, we miss half the story. YouGov goes on to show the same people the same list and asks which issues matter most to “you and your family”. Now the economy comes top, with 47 per cent, so that clearly (and unsurprisingly) does hold one of the keys to next year’s election. Second comes health, on 39 per cent – that’s another issue capable of shifting votes.

However, immigration scores just 19 per cent on this second measure. Millions of voters react to media coverage and appear to demand action—but only a minority feel it impinges on their own lives. The same, albeit on smaller scale, applies to welfare benefits (important to country 23 per cent; to own family 14 per cent) and Europe (country 17 per cent, family 8 per cent).

When David Cameron was first elected Conservative leader, he warned his party about the dangers of “banging on” about the European Union. He was right then—and unwise to make so much of the issue nowadays. Even Ukip supporters aren’t that bothered by the great EU debate: just 20 per cent of them say Europe is one of the top three concerns for them and their family—far behind immigration, the economy, health and pensions.

On the other hand, there are three issues which significantly more people say matter to them more than to the country: pensions (especially among the over 60s), tax (especially men) and family life and childcare (especially women).

Two thousand years ago, Juvenal, the Roman jurist, talked of the distinction between “bread and circuses” in political life. The same distinction applies today. Stories of immigrants suffering in shipping containers, “Brussels” behaving badly, and families reported to be living high on the hog on benefits—these are today’s “circus” issues. Politicians who are serious about winning the trust of voters should pay more attention to the ability of families to obtain their “bread”, both literally and metaphorically.