Politics

Boris Johnson: A future Prime Minister?

The Mayor of London might be a "star player", but does he have what it takes to go all the way?

August 07, 2014
Is Boris Johnson edging in on David Cameron's turf? © World Economic Forum
Is Boris Johnson edging in on David Cameron's turf? © World Economic Forum

Following his announcement that he will stand as an MP in the next election, this morning's papers confirm that Boris's parliamentary comeback is underway; he has spread his bedraggled blond frame across the front pages as only he can. “Boris Fever,” screams the Mail, “BoJo is Go-go,” cries the Sun. “Johnson in line to be business secretary,” says the Telegraph, where headline writers aren't allowed to have nearly so much fun.

The general assumption is that this goes beyond a return to Westminster. Many forsee a future cabinet position for the current Mayor of London in any re-elected Tory government, and most assume that this is just the first step on Johnson's path to a leadership bid. He denies this of course, but then, as BuzzFeed and others have pointed out, he did the same about becoming an MP.

But Prospect readers are a cut above; we know you aren't prone to getting swept up in the hype. Johnson is popular, certainly, but can he lead? He's gone down well in London—a traditional Labour heartland—but how would he play in Warwickshire or Thurrock? He's very good at trumping up his record, but there are empty penthouse flats in hyper-expensive zone 1 that many see as his true legacy.

We want to know if you think Boris would make a good Prime Minister. Read our rundown of the case for and against, then click below to cast your vote.



The case for

People like Boris. Really like him. A ComRes poll in June found that he was by some measure the most popular major politician in Britain, above David Cameron, Nigel Farage and Ed Miliband (ComRes aren't unopposed on this, though—we'll come back to our counterintuitive polling with YouGov later).

He's not like other politicians, largely because of his “buffoon” persona. I once reported on a “one year on” party for former gamesmakers from the 2012 Olympics. Backstage, Boris strode around glowering, followed by a scuttling team of advisers. But, once onstage, he gambolled about and cracked jokes—and the crowd lapped it up, whooping, cheering, chanting. This image is boosted by his enviable way with words. Here are two great moments from the bonkers Boris scrapbook:





As Mayor of London since 2008, he has presided over—on the surface anyway—a glowing period for the city, and has managed to associate himself with the capital in all its diversity and vibrancy. He did well to take credit for the 2012 Olympics, of course, (originally meant to be part of the legacy of fellow popstar politician Tony Blair). But he also won grudging respect from more unexpected quarters when he supported a group of scruffy skateboarders in their campaign to save historic skateboarding site the Undercroft at the Southbank. His “#askBoris” sessions on Twitter help him appear transparent and tech-savvy. On a more serious note, he and his people are keen to trumpet his (disputed—see later) record on housing—he exceeded his completions target on affordable housing last year. He's also proud of his encouragement of London's booming tech sector. At a press conference earlier this year, he subtly drew a contrast between the whole of England's poor record on rural broadband with his tech-friendly city.

Perhaps most importantly, Boris is a committed Eurosceptic, earlier this week talking up the “great and glorious future” Britain could have outside of the EU. If the next government is Tory, it will need to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Europe and probably hold a referendum on our membership in 2017. Ukip may have two or three MPs. For an increasingly Eurosceptic public, David Cameron might start to look too soft.

The case against

Back to the polls—this time our polling with YouGov from March. YouGov's in-depth research found that, while Boris had enjoyed a boost in popularity during the Olympics, that had largely faded. The below chart shows that, in 2012, a Boris-led Conservative party had a significantly higher share of the vote among voters polled than a Cameron-led one. This year, that difference has shrunk to a statistically trivial 1 per cent. It may be that Boris wouldn't actually be much more popular than Cameron, and who knows what would happen once you factor in the point that he'd be under much more scrutiny—and thus liable to make much bigger gaffes—in a significant national role.

On that point, Boris may do well when prancing about for the world's media as a loveable Mayor, but when treated to the same scrutiny as Cameron, Osborne and their ilk get on a daily basis, his record isn't great. Allow us to remind you of this:



Plus, he has been criticised for not spreading London's success equally throughout the city's population. On housing, for example, he has redefined what is considered “affordable” in planning terms, setting it at up to 80 per cent of market rent (up from a range of lower rates, some as low as 30-40 per cent). Many have questioned whether this is “affordable.” He has also presided over a house price boom out of line with the rest of the country: in May prices in the capital rose by 20.1 per cent in May compared to a growth of 10.5 per cent across the UK.

He's got one or two skeletons in his closet; he was fired from the  Times for reportedly making up a quote, and he has ties to convicted fraudster Darius Guppy. His time as a journalist also didn't make him many friends around the country; as editor of the Spectator he once had to apologise to the entire city of Liverpool.

Lastly, he may be anti-Europe, but he's pro-immigration, which might damage any popularity with Ukippers or more hard right Tories. Immigration is consistently polled as one of the most important issues facing the country among voters, while Europe tends to fall much further down the list. This has led to speculation among political pundits that Ukip's appeal might have more to do with their strong stance against movement of Labour than their other views on Europe. Boris might find he has to give up his self-proclaimed stance as the "only politician who'll admit to being pro-immigration" when he's talking to more people than the relatively liberal residents of the capital.