Following his announcement that he will stand as an MP in the next election, this morning's papers confirm that Boris's parliamentary comeback is underway; he has spread his bedraggled blond frame across the front pages as only he can. “Boris Fever,” screams the Mail, “BoJo is Go-go,” cries the Sun. “Johnson in line to be business secretary,” says the Telegraph, where headline writers aren't allowed to have nearly so much fun.
The general assumption is that this goes beyond a return to Westminster. Many forsee a future cabinet position for the current Mayor of London in any re-elected Tory government, and most assume that this is just the first step on Johnson's path to a leadership bid. He denies this of course, but then, as BuzzFeed and others have pointed out, he did the same about becoming an MP.
But Prospect readers are a cut above; we know you aren't prone to getting swept up in the hype. Johnson is popular, certainly, but can he lead? He's gone down well in London—a traditional Labour heartland—but how would he play in Warwickshire or Thurrock? He's very good at trumping up his record, but there are empty penthouse flats in hyper-expensive zone 1 that many see as his true legacy.
We want to know if you think Boris would make a good Prime Minister. Read our rundown of the case for and against, then click below to cast your vote.
The case for
People like Boris. Really like him. A ComRes poll in June found that he was by some measure the most popular major politician in Britain, above David Cameron, Nigel Farage and Ed Miliband (ComRes aren't unopposed on this, though—we'll come back to our counterintuitive polling with YouGov later).He's not like other politicians, largely because of his “buffoon” persona. I once reported on a “one year on” party for former gamesmakers from the 2012 Olympics. Backstage, Boris strode around glowering, followed by a scuttling team of advisers. But, once onstage, he gambolled about and cracked jokes—and the crowd lapped it up, whooping, cheering, chanting. This image is boosted by his enviable way with words. Here are two great moments from the bonkers Boris scrapbook:
The case against
Back to the polls—this time our polling with YouGov from March. YouGov's in-depth research found that, while Boris had enjoyed a boost in popularity during the Olympics, that had largely faded. The below chart shows that, in 2012, a Boris-led Conservative party had a significantly higher share of the vote among voters polled than a Cameron-led one. This year, that difference has shrunk to a statistically trivial 1 per cent. It may be that Boris wouldn't actually be much more popular than Cameron, and who knows what would happen once you factor in the point that he'd be under much more scrutiny—and thus liable to make much bigger gaffes—in a significant national role.On that point, Boris may do well when prancing about for the world's media as a loveable Mayor, but when treated to the same scrutiny as Cameron, Osborne and their ilk get on a daily basis, his record isn't great. Allow us to remind you of this: