What a difference a Shredded Wheat makes. Thanks to his eschewal of a third ("terms are like Shredded Wheat—two are wonderful but three might just be too many," the PM told the BBC before the election), we all know that David Cameron’s days as leader of the Conservative Party are limited.
The party conference must have—for him—been an odd mixture of triumph and fledgling valediction. For others, however, it’s been a breeding ground of possibility. Unsurprisingly, all eyes have been on his conceivable successors, and all ears on their potentially game-changing speeches. Here's a look at how each is faring after this conference:
Well, there's been almost unanimous praise for his conference speech. I heard one person claiming that they "hadn’t seen a reaction like that since Thatcher." There was no shortage of comedy lines—he described Corbynites as people who "ferment anti-capitalism as if it were some fruity alcopop." But he was also serious, and convincingly compassionate, highlighting issues such as FGM, the pay gap, and (most significantly) the cutting of tax credits. He emanated—without the need for an auto-cue or a hairbrush—the thought: "Look how great I’ve made London, let me do the same for everywhere else!"
Verdict: It's undoubted that he’d have been a superb corraller of spirits if Labour had won, but whether people see Boris as a future Prime Minister is less certain.
Betfair odds: 23/5
Osborne's conference speech retained the final vestiges of his bygone awkwardness—phrases like "for we are the builders" and "let the devolution revolution begin" still seem a little too pop-star. But this awkwardness has crossed a line, and become endearing. It was clever of him to use Ed Balls-slayer Andrea Jenkyns, the new Tory MP who took the former Shadow Chancellor's seat in Morley and Outwood, as a warm-up act, and his speech was rooted in happy old Long-Term-Economic-Plan-Land. It built (to use his new favourite word) on his popular summer budget, reminding people of the Living Wage commitment, while devolving sizable new powers to councils. Again, he stayed attractive to party members of most persuasions, but flirted with Labour voters in a calm, honest way.
Verdict: It’s hard to think—short of another banking crisis—that he won’t remain invincible.
Betfair odds: 6/4
Verdict: This was an emphatic call to arms for the snubbed Eurosceptic wing, and a powerful display of opportunism from an experienced and principled contender.
Betfair odds: 7
Verdict: People really like Javid, and he’s usually very polished, but there just isn’t much excitement surrounding him at the moment.
Betfair odds: 17/2
Verdict: Those who ask whether she’s exciting enough to be Prime Minister ignore the support Cameron has gained for his steadiness—she’s one to watch.
Betfair odds: 47
The party conference must have—for him—been an odd mixture of triumph and fledgling valediction. For others, however, it’s been a breeding ground of possibility. Unsurprisingly, all eyes have been on his conceivable successors, and all ears on their potentially game-changing speeches. Here's a look at how each is faring after this conference:
Boris Johnson
We know how popular Boris is. We also know, however, that he hasn’t had a great year, politically. Aside from having become an MP again, and remaining incomparably revered as Mayor of London, that is… But Boris likes to zoom for the sky (except at Heathrow), and leadership and cabinet-seat-wise, things haven’t being going so well. So, the question is—has that just changed?Well, there's been almost unanimous praise for his conference speech. I heard one person claiming that they "hadn’t seen a reaction like that since Thatcher." There was no shortage of comedy lines—he described Corbynites as people who "ferment anti-capitalism as if it were some fruity alcopop." But he was also serious, and convincingly compassionate, highlighting issues such as FGM, the pay gap, and (most significantly) the cutting of tax credits. He emanated—without the need for an auto-cue or a hairbrush—the thought: "Look how great I’ve made London, let me do the same for everywhere else!"
Verdict: It's undoubted that he’d have been a superb corraller of spirits if Labour had won, but whether people see Boris as a future Prime Minister is less certain.
Betfair odds: 23/5
George Osborne
If it weren’t for the Boris speech, there would have been a more obvious starting place for this run-down of Conservative leadership contenders. Manchester is not only the home of the Northern Powerhouse; it also houses the constituency of the Powerhouse’s father—the most beloved man in the party. ConservativeHome’s polling on the leadership race recently put Chancellor George Osborne on 30.9 per cent, about 12 points clear of his nearest rival Sajid Javid. Osborne is having his best year ever. He's already (you can add "supposedly" here, if you want) single-handedly fixed the economy, and won the election.Osborne's conference speech retained the final vestiges of his bygone awkwardness—phrases like "for we are the builders" and "let the devolution revolution begin" still seem a little too pop-star. But this awkwardness has crossed a line, and become endearing. It was clever of him to use Ed Balls-slayer Andrea Jenkyns, the new Tory MP who took the former Shadow Chancellor's seat in Morley and Outwood, as a warm-up act, and his speech was rooted in happy old Long-Term-Economic-Plan-Land. It built (to use his new favourite word) on his popular summer budget, reminding people of the Living Wage commitment, while devolving sizable new powers to councils. Again, he stayed attractive to party members of most persuasions, but flirted with Labour voters in a calm, honest way.
Verdict: It’s hard to think—short of another banking crisis—that he won’t remain invincible.
Betfair odds: 6/4
Theresa May
Never one to shirk from speaking boldly, Home Secretary Theresa May’s speech, which took a hard line on immigration, divided opinion. But then, the Conservative Party is a broad church—and she knows this. What, to some, might have seemed like a volte face showed that she was happy to go all out to court the right. To many in the centre of the party, her choice of language was disappointing.Verdict: This was an emphatic call to arms for the snubbed Eurosceptic wing, and a powerful display of opportunism from an experienced and principled contender.
Betfair odds: 7
Sajid Javid
Not only did Sajid Javid gain the biggest Conservative increase in vote share in the general election, he’s also been solidly creeping up party opinion polls. Somehow, he manages to pull off a charming symbiosis of One Nationism and classic Thatcherite free marketeering. Business Secretary is a pretty safe post at the moment, too. But maybe safe isn’t sufficient. Javid's policy-lite speech this year gained little traction. That said, while its memorable final sentence—"Standing up to Brussels, standing up for business, standing up for Britain"—was also rather pop-songy (he is an Osborne protégée, after all), it surely established a clever standpoint for him.Verdict: People really like Javid, and he’s usually very polished, but there just isn’t much excitement surrounding him at the moment.
Betfair odds: 17/2
Nicky Morgan
Those people who thought that Nicky Morgan would be a good successor to Michael Gove because they assumed she'd stay quiet and soothe public opinion on education policy weren’t quite right. Yes, she managed to stick to his policies whilst dropping the confrontation. But she hasn’t been quiet at all, not least about her leadership pretensions. Her conference speech was also a bit light on policy, but it did—by bringing up the pink busload of Labour gaffes—remind us of her other role: Minister for Women and Equalities. This fits well with the modernising approach that has been so successful for Cameron—as does her early commitment to the EU referendum "in" side. And, while she’s worked hard to persuade voters that she regrets having opposed Equal Marriage, there are also plenty of traditionalists who will still like her for her original position.Verdict: Those who ask whether she’s exciting enough to be Prime Minister ignore the support Cameron has gained for his steadiness—she’s one to watch.
Betfair odds: 47
