Predictions for 2010

Twenty ten has an odd ring to it, and it’s shaping up to be a curious year. Here are a few Prospect predictions. In 2010, the west will discover just how much the financial crash has weakened it­—in particular, the Chinese will wave away pleas to allow its currency to appreciate, and call the west’s bluff over a threatened trade war. Both Russia and China will decline to force Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons plans; that task will instead be undertaken by Israeli pilots, thereby derailing some surprisingly promising new Israel-Palestine peace talks. But, on a more positive note, the government of North Korea will fall, and after a short period of chaos a more benign regime will emerge. And Osama bin Laden will finally be caught. By the Chinese.

What about closer to home? Martin Amis’s new novel will not see a return to form (again), Prince Charles will become King, a major national newspaper will go free, there will be a serious (but bungled) terrorist incident, and England will get knocked out of the World Cup in the semi-finals by an African country (after penalties). There will be two elections: first in early May, then again later in October when the Tories will return to the country to end, successfully, the hung parliament (between elections Gordon Brown will resign as Labour leader and go off to run the secretariat of the increasingly powerful G20).

Many of those predictions will be proved wrong, here’s one that won’t be: the British general election of 2010 will be less important than most. The likely winners have already adopted much of their predecessor’s programme, albeit with less enthusiasm for the state and Britain’s global role. The Tories will come up with a few fresh ideas for overcoming the fiscal crisis—perhaps a tax on land values?—but in most respects they will just manage their inheritance. Some constitutional radicals see the outline of a bigger shift—yet rest their hopes on two unlikely scenarios. Scenario one sees Labour losing the popular vote but remaining the largest party, and offering the Lib Dems a deal on proportional representation. This could lock in centre-left governments for decades, but Nick Clegg surely cannot prop up a tired Labour government that has lost voters’ confidence. Scenario two has the Tories winning a mandate for a big cut in the number of MPs and deciding that, in view of Scottish self-government, most cuts should come north of the border. This, along with the fact that so few Scots will have voted for the Tories, pushes Scotland towards independence, ensuring eternal Tory governments in England… equally unlikely. The more interesting question is whether the Tories, battling through economic turbulence, can get themselves re-elected in 2015.

Read more Prospect predictions for 2010 here