What's going on?
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) has won a surprise majority in the country's General Elections, held yesterday. Turkey's controversial President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who founded the AKP, called the snap elections in August after his party lost its majority in June and AKP Prime Minister Ahmet Davutolu failed to form a coalition government. It was a huge gamble given the strength of opposition to the AKP in many quarters, but it seems to have partly paid off. The AKP won almost 50 per cent of the vote and 316 seats in the 550-seat parliament, well ahead of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) who took 134 seats and a little over 25 per cent of the vote. In June, AKP took only 258 MPs, below the 276 needed to form a single-party government.
Why take the gamble?
Erdogan, who became Turkey's first directly-elected President in 2014 after 11 years as Prime Minister, is seeking to secure his and his party's authority over the country. He has long harboured ambitions to amend Turkey's constitution and give himself US-style executive powers—his role is largely ceremonial. This election result will not immediately allow him to do so; he would have needed another 14 seats to call a referendum on the issue and another 60 to push through the changes without the public's assent. But he will be able to grow and consolidate his influence over parliament. Despite the shortfall, Erdogan will be relieved. Opinion polls had not predicted success for the AKP on this scale and the country's previously healthy economic growth rate—maintaining which over the past decade was a large part of Erdogan's appeal—began to flag in 2014.
What should we watch out for?
Turkey has long had problems with violence involving its Kurdish minority, and these sectarian tensions are at their highest for a long time. The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) won the 10 per cent of the vote required to gain seats in parliament in June and maintained it this time. But a ceasefire between the government and Kurdish rebel group the PKK broke down over the summer, with Kurdish guerrillas killing Turkish soldiers and the Turkish government launching air strikes against PKK positions. Each side accuses the other of stoking tensions, but with a stronger mandate to govern, Erdogan may feel confident in pushing ahead with violence against the group, which the government considers to be a terrorist organisation.
