Putin’s invasion is a catastrophe for Ukraine, for Europe, for the world, but also for Russians. Wars always cost a lot, and this is exacerbated by western economic sanctions. Ordinary Russians are paying the price, and some are paying with their lives as Putin sends thousands of young men to fight a war he assumed would be easily won. It is a maniacal crusade built on a misunderstanding of geography and history. Bombarding nuclear power plants, and making threats of nuclear war, Putin’s plan looks increasingly like suicide for Russia.
One would not know this from the speeches, reports, press releases and tweets produced by western governments, in which Russia the country is often confused with Putin the individual. And the language is essentially antagonistic—which is understandable, but not optimal. Efforts to fight Russian propaganda inside Russia remain limited. More importantly, we have heard little about what western countries and Nato could offer to another Russian government to develop security and cooperation in the future.
This weak communication reinforces Putin and diminishes the Russian opposition. It accentuates the perception of Russia standing against the developed world, when we should be focusing on the strands within Russian society that would put an end to this reckless war. Revealingly, President Zelensky is infinitely better at doing this. The Ukrainian leadership regularly underlines how Putin is demolishing Russians’ interests to protect his clique and their kleptocratic system.
Countering the numerous lies spouted by Putin (including the alleged western will to belittle or even invade Russia) should be a real priority for Nato. This should go hand in hand with a reminder of what was tried in the past to encourage collaboration with Russia (beginning with the 1997 Nato/Russia Founding Act on mutual relations, cooperation and security). It is also essential to outline a framework for future collaboration. This war won’t go on forever. At the end, European countries and Russia will still share an essential border. And they’ll need to cooperate—even more than before, taking into account the existential need for a rapid energy transition.
Sooner or later, most Russians will understand that they have nothing to gain from the Ukraine war. Putin is ready to fight until the last of them does. And the more this goes on, the more Russia will turn into a Chinese economic protectorate. This is a war that proves the extreme danger of letting one man alone decide the fate of nations without any serious checks and balances. Putin launched his invasion with the intention firstly to control Ukraine’s vast economic resources (just like Hitler did in 1941), and secondly to extend his kleptocratic empire. These aims were more important to him than fighting Nato (which, with a few thousand men on the Russian border, was threatening absolutely nobody).
It is thus essential to demonstrate repeatedly that European countries and the Atlantic alliance are fully ready to re-establish serious cooperation with any Russian government, and even improve on it, provided this government strongly guarantees basic international principles, and is fully ready to implement them with regard to Ukraine. Such an understanding should cover not only military, but also economic, technological and climate matters. We need a more positive kind of diplomacy.
More international cooperation is absolutely essential to improve our way of life, recover from the last pandemic, prepare for the next one, and accelerate the fight against climate change, whose multiple dangers were strongly underlined during the summer. Russians who are ready to fight for this must know they have allies outside.
