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What does Russia want and why?

"It is Putin the conservative and not Putin the realist who decided to violate Ukraine’s sovereignty."

by Ivan Krastev / March 6, 2014 / Leave a comment
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Guarding a Ukrainian pier: Russian troops have taken control of much of the peninsula in the Black Sea. © PA Images 


On March 1 Russia took de facto control over Crimea—prompting the German chancellor Angela Merkel to comment that President Putin was living “in another world”. Has Putin indeed lost the plot or is he simply asserting his power over Crimea and the East of Ukraine? Why did he decide to resort to force? And why does he seem unafraid of the West’s reaction? The popular opinion is that the Russian President is a hard-nosed realist who believes “it is better to be feared than loved.” Another theory is that Putin’s approach to power has evolved and whereas before he acted pragmatically to protect his military and economic interests, now he is styling himself as a more ideological figure in the mold of Tsar Nicolas I, an ultra conservative autocrat who crushed two revolutions and went on to fight the Crimean war.

Russian officials have already declared that they view the change of government in Kiev as a coup. Their conditions for diplomatic negotiations over Ukraine are a return to the February 21 agreement between Yanukovych and the opposition, which was sponsored by the three EU foreign ministers. This is the agreement that Russia refused to sign. While Moscow is aware that Yanukovych cannot be reinstated, the Kremlin wants to see the current transitional government in Kiev replaced with one that includes pro-Russian figures from East Ukraine. Russia is also insisting that the parliamentary and presidential elections be held in December instead of May. What Putin expects…

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Comments

  1. John Ellis
    March 10, 2014 at 08:01
    I can concur with everything written here, although what has priority in Putin's little mind is more difficult to gauge. Watching the BBC's '37 days' on the lead-up to WWI, I was struck particularly by the similarities between the Tsar's behaviour after the Sarajevo assassination and Putin's now. Personally, I see Putin has having a national chip on his shoulder and a mind-set forged in the twisted days of the Cold War.
  2. Sean Swan
    March 22, 2014 at 19:16
    Well, you got your facts wrong in the first sentence, I didn't see much point reading after that. On Merkel saying that Putin had ‘lost touch with reality’ – that’s not what she said, according to Die Welt “This image does not correspond to reality. They are not happy at the Chancellery with the report in the "New York Times". Merkel had not wanted to suggest that Putin was behaving irrationally. Rather she told Barack Obama that President Putin had a different understanding of the situation in the Crimea. This is why Merkel is urging the sending of a fact finding mission” In the original German - “Dieses Bild entspricht allerdings nicht der Wirklichkeit. So ist man im Kanzleramt über den Bericht der "New York Times" nicht glücklich. Merkel habe mitnichten ausdrücken wollen, Putin verhalte sich irrational. Sie habe Barack Obama vielmehr gesagt, Präsident Putin habe eine andere Wahrnehmung der Lage auf der Krim. Deshalb dringt Merkel ja auf eine "Fact Finding Mission". http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/politik/article125398592/Drahtseilakt-Merkel-zwischen-Putin-und-Obama.html
  3. shadow
    April 14, 2014 at 10:32
    Russian invasion in Cimea is a response to something that US has started in the first place

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About this author

Ivan Krastev
Ivan Krastev is chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia
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