Israeli elections: what happens if Herzog wins?

People have always underestimated Isaac "Buji" Herzog, the leader of Israel's Labour Party. Diffident, studious, quiet-spoken and bespectacled he may be, but he may also be about to topple "King Bibi," Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the country's elections tomorrow. Unfancied as a prime ministerial candidate when the campaign began months ago, Herzog now has that most precious of political commodities, momentum. Herzog has been catching up to Netanyahu as the man seen as the most credible Prime Minister by Israelis. Even more significantly, Netanyahu's Likud party has been losing altitude in the polls, with both party and leader accused of being jaded and out of touch with a public demanding socio-economic reforms.

Now the polls put Zionist Union—the electoral pact between Herzog's Labour and former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's centrist Hatnua party—on 25 seats, four ahead of Likud. If he sustains or widens that lead tomorrow, he is in touching distance of a presidential invitation to form a governing coalition. That coalition building process would be no picnic, but assuming Herzog were ultimately to take the Prime Minister's chair, what would it mean for Israel and internationally?

Domestically Herzog is promising to tackle the cost of living crisis which has dominated Israel's political agenda since major protests demanding social justice were staged in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa in 2011. In short, he wants higher spending on public services and welfare, subsidised state land for affordable housing, and improved competition in consumer markets. Where all the money will come from is not clear, but one source will be subsidies currently given to isolated West Bank settlements: Herzog has promised to stop building beyond the main settlement blocks, which Israel hopes to keep in any future agreement with the Palestinians.

Through this he also hopes to send a message to the international community that he is serious about reaching a two state solution. For this reason above all others, Herzog is likely to enjoy a warm welcome on the international stage, especially in the US and Europe, compared to Netanyahu, whose coalition with the pro-settlement right has undermined the credibility of his commitment to the peace process. Few in Israel expect a sudden breakthrough with the Palestinians, even under a centre-left government, but Herzog proposes to recruit moderate Arab states and the West in an attempt stop the current deterioration and forge a diplomatic horizon.

Indeed one of Herzog and Livni's offers to the Israeli public is improved international relations and legitimacy, which they say will in turn enhance Israel's security. Herzog can be expected to be welcomed with a bear hug in Washington, where the Obama administration's clashes with Netanyahu over both the peace process and Iran have soured relations. Once he gets inside the White House however, he is likely to echo Netanyahu's warnings over a bad deal with Iran, which are shared across the spectrum in Israel. Indeed, no Israeli premier will last long if they are not seen to be standing up for Israel's vital national security interests.

Nonetheless, if Herzog wins, the world is about to hear a different kind of Israeli voice. Herzog comes steeped in the tradition of the Zionist centre left: uncompromising on Israeli security, but believing that peace agreements with Israel's Arab neighbours are a strategic asset that can justify territorial compromises. His Zionist Union has framed this election in part as a fight over the future of the State of Israel, and the Zionist camp as heirs to the liberal and democratic traditions of the Zionist founders. Herzog's rhetoric positions his party against an extremist /nationalist/sectarian camp which is contrary to Zionist values.

Relatively unknown outside of Israel, Herzog is the scion of Israeli political aristocracy. His father, Chaim, the son of Israel's first chief rabbi, moved to British mandate Palestine from Ireland, and went on to become the country's sixth president. It is primarily from his father that Herzog enjoys a special affection for Britain. Chaim Herzog served in the British forces during WWII to the rank of Lt Col, and went on to become the founder of Israeli military intelligence. Chaim's brother-in-law—Isaac Herzog's uncle—was Abba Eban, the legendary British-educated Israeli diplomat.

Herzog served in IDF military intelligence like his father, and is fluent in Arabic (his mother having been born in Egypt.) In fact military intelligence, strategy and diplomacy, are something of a family business: Herzog's older brother Michael is a former head of the IDF strategic planning branch and has played a key role in negotiations with the Palestinians for more than 20 years.

Whilst Herzog boasts this impressive family background, and has a solid personal record as minister of both housing and welfare, counting against him has been the perception of him as "geeky," with a rather tinny voice, and lacking the kind of alpha-male charisma that typifies some of his rivals. In the last few weeks the Zionist Union campaign has centred on a somewhat belated attempt to brand Herzog as a considered, responsible but strong leader, using campaign photos of Herzog looking more rugged and square jawed. Israel's main satirical show Gav Haumah joked that this was the first time Photoshop had been used to add more wrinkles to a face.

In reality, given the immense complexity of Israel's domestic politics, and the myriad national security threats the country handles on a daily basis, should Herzog become Prime Minister, the true test of his leadership abilities will be only just beginning.