Politics

EU Referendum: What happens if Cameron opts for "Out?"

Voters might reject the Prime Minister's advice—whatever he says

November 09, 2015
David Cameron has to win support across the political spectrum. © Wiktor Dabkowski/DPA/Press Association Images
David Cameron has to win support across the political spectrum. © Wiktor Dabkowski/DPA/Press Association Images

Let us take David Cameron at his word. He says that if his fellow European Union leaders turn a “deaf ear” to his demands for EU reform, he will recommend a vote to leave in the coming referendum. Suppose he isn’t bluffing. Suppose he carries out his threat. What then?

The obvious conclusion is that the UK would vote for Brexit. One simple index of the change in the national mood is the change in party fortunes in general elections over the past ten years. Here are the total votes across Britain won by the parties that would be campaigning on the two sides in the referendum: pro-membership (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid Cymru) and anti-membership (Conservatives, Ukip).



It is of course wrong to assume that the supporters of each party will abide by their leader’s recommendation. Some Labour and Lib Dem supporters will vote for Brexit, while some Tories will opt for staying in the EU. But YouGov surveys in recent years suggest that most will side with their party’s stance. The shift in the past decade from a 6.8m majority for pro-EU parties to a two million majority for anti-EU parties cannot be dismissed.

However, Cameron may find that he has a bumpy ride campaigning for Brexit. Here are three reasons why.

First, having spurned the other 27 leaders of the EU, they will spurn him. This matters, because he will need to persuade wavering voters that life will be rosier, or at least no less hazardous, outside the EU. This means showing that the jobs and investment that currently depend on trade with the EU are safe. This in turn means showing that the rest of the EU will be willing to grant easy access to their markets. They may be reluctant to do so. Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and other leaders will be tempted to tell Cameron: “You can’t have it both ways: either you are part of the club or you are not. You can’t have a pic’n’mix relationship”.

In the end, if the UK does vote for Brexit, the rest of the EU might well relax their attitude. But what matters here is how they act ahead of the referendum. They have no interest in making it easy for Cameron to succeed. So their stance during the campaign is likely to be pretty tough.

Secondly, referendums round the world generally favour the status quo. Cameron will be trying to persuade voters to opt for change. It won’t just be other EU leaders warning of the dangers of Brexit. So will many business leaders, including the leaders of the CBI and the Institute of Directors. Expect turbulence on the financial markets, and stories of multinational companies planning to invest on the continent rather than in Britain. Brexit could look like an increasingly risky option.

Thirdly, if the Tories are on one side and Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems on the other, then the referendum would be a mid-term opportunity to bash the government, like a giant nationwide by-election. Many people could end up thinking not just about Britain’s place in Europe, but about tax credits, public spending cuts, pay curbs in the public sector and a host of other issues. The urge to bash the Tories might trump the urge to bash Brussels.

So which way would the referendum go? I have no idea. Whatever Cameron ends up deciding, he will be taking a huge risk. Whichever side he chooses, there is a real chance that Britain’s voters will reject his advice.