Will 2013 be the year Mugabe finally relinquishes power?

Yesterday, the citizens of Zimbabwe (plus the two million dead Zimbabweans whose names are allegedly still on the electoral register) cast their votes in the presidential and parliamentary elections.

For the last four years, the government has been formed of an uneasy coalition between President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu PF and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change. These elections are the first to be held under a revised constitution, introduced earlier this year by referendum. On paper it places restrictions on the president’s powers and limits them to serving no more than two terms. Will 2013 see the end of Mugabe’s 33-year rule? A panel of experts gathered at the Frontline Club last night to discuss this question.

Zimbabwe-watchers have been encouraged by the relative peace in the lead up to the elections. Voting in 2008 was marred by horrific violence, leaving 200 dead and thousands injured. This election has seen no such incidences so far. But Simukai Tinhu, a journalist and Africa analyst, was cautious–even in 2008 the first round of voting was peaceful; it was only in the second run, when Mugabe realised that he might lose, that the violence began. The same could happen again this time, he suggested, if there is a run-off. In Zimbabwe, a presidential candidate must receive more than half of the vote; if no candidate does, a run-off is held between the two most popular candidates.

Wilf Mbanga is the former editor of the Daily News, Zimbabwe’s only independent newspaper and he now lives in self-imposed exile after the government shut down his newspaper and branded him “an enemy of the people.” He noted that a peaceful vote is not the same as a fair vote: “This time, they don’t want visible signs of violence,” he said. “They’re manipulating the figures instead.” Mbanga claims that there are 100,000 people over the age of 100 on the electoral roll (in a country where life expectancy is 51) and that in some rural areas, where Mugabe’s support base lives, Mbanga suggested registration figures are 150 per cent of the population. They’re going to steal the vote, he said, “but they’re going to do it with figures, not beating people up.”

Mbanga insisted that Mugabe and his ideas are long out of date: “He’s still in 1979 mode,” he said, suggesting that the president still acts as though he’s leading a guerrilla movement. Chofamba Sithole, a Zimbabwean journalist and assistant editor of NewsAfrica magazine, agreed that Mugabe has lost his appeal as a figure of leadership because of his age and illness, so that young people can't see him as the person to lead Zimbabwe to a bright and exciting future. But he added that Mugabe’s ideas still hold sway. Land reform and indigenisation remain popular issues, for example.

Unsurprisingly, the panellists rejected the idea that this might be a free and fair election, despite the presence of independent monitors. But Sithole felt the election was at least under more scrutiny than in previous years. “I don’t want to set the bar for African scandals lower,” he said, “but realistically what’s happening in Zimbabwe [in terms of vote manipulation] isn’t that far off what’s happening in other African countries.” But Mbanga suggested the EU is less willing to voice criticisms this year because of the presence of China in Zimbabwe. “The EU has softened its stance only because of trade,” he said.

The first results could be called this evening, but the final result probably won’t be announced until after the weekend. According to the constitution, the result must be announced within five days of the election, 5^th August, in this case. If there are disputes over procedure, that doesn’t leave much time for appeals to the constitutional court, noted Sue Onslow, a historian at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, who chaired the event. But in any case, retorted Mbanga, “the constitutional court is packed with Mugabe judges.”

Mugabe has committed himself to stepping down from his 33-year reign if his party loses the election. Because of the president’s age and illness, and his waning popularity among the young, Sithole said he could envisage Tsvangirai winning the vote. But, said Tinhu: “If Zanu PF lose this election, I don’t see them saying that they have lost this election. What we might see is them forming some kind of coalition.”

Mugabe claimed a landslide victory this morning, before results had been announced.