What was supposed to be a smooth process of President-elect Obama picking the top three jobs at state, treasury and Pentagon has been interrupted by three unexpected developments. First, the financial crisis made the treasury the hot seat. Second, the venerable Paul Volcker, said he'd like the chance to save the world again, as he did back in 1980 with inflation squashing interest rate hikes. Then, thirdly, the labor unions said they had a candidate—New Jersey governor, former senator and former Goldman Sachs chairman John Corzine. (Remember Bob Rubin and Hank Paulsen—it doesn't matter who you vote for, Goldman Sachs almost always gets it.) Meanwhile, Larry Summers is lobbying almost as hard as he is being lobbied against by those who say he too much a free-trader and de-regulator; the first signs of the inevitable internal bales between free readers and protectionists and then between the realists and the global justice crowd in foreign policy. The complicating factor is that Obama says he wants a woman and a Republican in one of those top three jobs.....
Former London Business School head Laura D'Andrea Tyson is being strongly backed by Hillary for the treasury. Sheila Bair, a Republican, could hit both targets, and has made a lot of friends among Democrats (including VP Joe Biden) by her energy and ability in tackling the mortgage crisis at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The only relief for Obama in this internal tussle is that he has consolation prizes in his gift at the Council of Economic Advisers, the Economic Security Council, and the one the labour unions are passionate about, the cabinet-level job of US Trade Representative, where they want a protectionist but might have to settle for the pragmatic Tyson.
Obama can appease the women by nominating Arizona Governor Jane Napolitano as attorney-general, running the justice department, and ought to pick the highly impressive Congresswoman Jane Harman to clean up the chaotic and demoralised CIA. But Obama is also spending a lot of time fending off lobbying calls from people pushing General Wesley Clark for the Pentagon (he may get Homeland Security) and for and against Dick Holbrooke at state. The trouble is that Obama wants to nominate a Republican, and he reveres Senator Dick Lugar, 72, and really likes Senator Chuck Hagel. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Senator John Kerry are both fighting hard for same post, even though they'll have Joe Biden constantly looking over their shoulder. Kerry may have to settle for chairman of the senate foreign relations committee. And then there are all the campaign loyalists like Tony Lake, Greg Craig and Susan Rice, Ivo Daalder and Chicago billionaire Penny Pritzker who all feel they deserve reward, going up against highly competent veterans from the Clinton years like Strobe Talbot at State and Jim Steinberg at the National Security Council. For what it's worth, Tumbler's guesses are:
- Treasury: Volcker, for a year or so, to be succeeded by Geithner.
- State: Richardson.
- Pentagon: Gates stays on.
- Justice: Napolitano.
- Homeland Security: Clark.
- Director National intelligence: Holbrooke.
- USTR: Tyson.
- NSC: Greg Craig, Steinberg as deputy
- UN -Ambassador: Susan Rice.
- Health and Human Services: Howard Dean.
- Commerce: Penny Pritzker.
- Education: Colin Powell.
- Chair, Council Economic Advisers: Austan Goolsbee
- And a final wild card - the big surprise may be Hillary to the State Department.
