Iraq air strikes vote: What a difference a year makes

 

The Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond arrives for a cabinet meeting at 10 Downing St ©Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA Wire

At the end of last August, David Cameron recalled Parliament to seek approval for British participation in air strikes against Syria’s chemical weapons installations. The issue had erupted rapidly, following evidence that President Assad’s regime had used such terrible weapons. But British public opinion wasn’t ready. A YouGov poll published the day before the debate showed two-to-one opposition to British involvement. In the debate, 21 MPs referred to the wary public mood. In the event, Cameron lost by 13 votes.

The contrast in the public mood this time is striking. Parliament meets today with most voters in favour of air strikes against the Islamic State insurgents. Our latest survey, for the Sun, finds that 57 per cent would support the RAF taking part, and just 24 per cent opposed.

This is the highest support we have found since we started tracking public attitudes six weeks ago. On 10^th to 11^th August, opinion was evenly divided, with 37 per cent in favour and 36 per cent against. But as the threat from Islamic State to stability in the Middle East has grown, and its gruesome execution of British and American hostages shown us its true nature, public support for military action has grown.

In today’s debate, ministers and MPs are drawing a clear distinction between air strikes in Iraq, taken at the request of Iraq’s own government, which has been ruled out so far. Few voters make that distinction. Almost as many people, 51 per cent, would support action in Syria as in Iraq.

However, voters agree with ministers that British military action should be confined to air strikes. Just 26 per cent would support sending ground troops back to Iraq to help fight the Islamic State forces; 54 per cent are opposed. However, 17 per cent say we should hold back now, but not rule out the possibility of sending troops in at some point in the future. This makes a total of 43 per cent who either approve sending in ground troops, or are prepared to keep the option open—compared with 38 per cent who would rule it out in all circumstances.

As usual with questions to do with war and peace, there is a gender gap; but this time it is unusually large. Sixty-nine per cent of men approve of air strikes, compared with just 45 per cent of women.

In the long run, public opinion will be shaped by results more than intentions. Voters were divided on the wisdom of military action when Britain joined the invasion of Iraq 11 years ago. By the time Saddam Hussein’s regime was overthrown, support climbed to 66 per cent. But then we became progressively more disenchanted, first as weapons of mass destruction failed to materialise, and then when Iraq failed to evolve into a peaceful post-war democracy.

I would expect something similar to happen this time if the air strikes fail to stop Islamic State’s advance. Today, Cameron should have the House of Commons with him. He must hope that his decision to take military action in Iraq proves more successful than Tony Blair’s.