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Shaun Bailey’s route to power

A Tory mayoral victory would be tough to achieve—unlikely, even. But tough and unlikely aren't the same as impossible

By Mark Wallace  

Shaun Bailey with former PM David Cameron. It will be hard for the Conservatives to win in 2020—but not impossible. Photo: PA

Shaun Bailey, the newly selected Conservative candidate for London mayor, faces an uphill battle. When Ladbrokes tweeted that they were pricing his chances at 3/1, the political scientist Philip Cowley commented that it was “stingy,” and proposed 500/1. He was only half-joking.

The reasons for pessimism about Bailey’s chances are clear. London traditionally votes Labour, falling on the left of a range of economic, social and cultural…

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