Politics

Corbyn’s NHS dossier is a “dead cat” strategy if there ever was one—but will it work?

The Labour leader is exaggerating the immediate risk to the health service, but there is no question that Trump’s trade demands will be hard line

November 27, 2019
Photo: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire/PA Images
Photo: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire/PA Images

It’s known as the dead catstrategy. When political leaders are in trouble they like to produce a diversion so dramatic, outrageous and alarming that, as the Australian strategist Lynton Crosby once put it everyone will shout Jeez, mate, theres a dead cat on the table!In other words, they will be talking about the dead cat—the thing you want them to talk about—and they will not be talking about the issue that has been causing you so much grief.

With Jeremy Corbyn struggling to end the row about anti-semitism, after the intervention of the Chief Rabbi, and facing new questions about Labours tax and spending plans, following Andrew Neils interview with him, the Labour leader desperately needed to change the subject. He did so this morning by publishing 451 pages of unredacted documents which he claimed showed that the NHS was for salein UK trade talks with the US. Dramatically waving a sheaf of papers in the air at a press conference, he said the minutes of meetings between US and UK negotiators—marked OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE”—left “in absolute tatters” Boris Johnson’s denials that the health system was not on the table. Voters need to ask themselves,he said, is the NHS safe in Boris Johnsons hands?

It was an eye-catching gesture which momentarily at least shifted attention away from Labours own controversies. Indeed Barry Gardiner let the dead catout of the bag when he angrily took a journalist to task at the press conference for asking a question about anti-semitism. Labour is politically astute to try to link the emotive issue of the NHS to Brexit, just as the Vote Leave campaign did so successfully in 2016, but the reality is not quite as clear cut as Corbyn suggests.

The documents do show that US pharmaceutical companies are keen to get access to the UK market, and that this has been discussed in the talks between officials. One document quotes the UKs negotiator as saying: The impact of some patent issues raised on NHS access to generic drugs (ie cheaper drugs) will be a key considerationin discussions leading up to a trade deal.  The Tories later suggested that Corbyn had quoted this line out of context and the paper does not specifically suggest that the government would allow drug prices to rise, but it does highlight that this could be “difficult territory” in the negotiations. The US is demanding total market accessto all UK service sectors as the baseline from which talks will start, the minutes add.

What the leaked papers do not prove, however, is that the UK government has agreed to the US demands. The US were testing our system and eager to push their positions,the minutes state. “We have reached a point (for Patents in Pharmaceuticals/Health) where beyond specific policy details in niche areas we are awaiting the clearance to negotiate.Corbyn cannot credibly say that the NHS will be for saleif the Conservatives win the election, something that Johnson has repeatedly ruled out.

What is obvious though is that the US will strike a hard bargain and it will be much more difficult than Johnson suggests to get a trade deal with Donald Trump if he refuses to agree to his demands. The prime minister is trying to play down the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit at the end of next year, but these documents show absolutely categorically that the US would much prefer the UK to make a clean break with the EU so that it no longer has to abide by its rules and regulations. The US trade representative was clear that there would be all to play for in a no-deal situation,the official record of one meeting states, but UK commitment to the customs union and single market would make a UK-US FTA [Free Trade Agreement] a non-starter.The US will demand that the UK moves in its direction on regulation but any divergence from EU rules will make it all but impossible for Johnson to strike a trade deal with Brussels by the end of 2020. Since he has ruled out a further extension of the transition period, this makes a no-deal departure the most likely eventual outcome.

The imminent threat of a no-deal Brexit which is deeply unpopular (as well as the inevitability that EU wrangles will continue for years, despite the prime ministers promise to “Get Brexit Done”) is arguably Labours strongest argument against the Conservatives. But Corbyn is reluctant to make it because he wants to focus on the issues which have traditionally been the strongest for his own party, including low pay and the NHS. Todays announcement was not only a dead cat but also a shrill and steady dog whistle trying to summon traditional voters back to the Labour cause.