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Eu referendum: could Britain vote to leave?

It cannot be taken for granted that voters will keep Britain in the EU

By Peter Kellner   December 2015

Scroll to the bottom to explore the dataRead Anatole Kaletsky on why Brexit would be a diplomatic disaster

Leaving aside California and Switzerland, which delegate large numbers of political decisions to their voters, most referendums around the world concern constitutional change. And the results of most of these turn on essentially the same question: which is the safer option—to change our arrangements or to keep things as they are?

Our coming referendum on the EU looks like fitting this pattern exactly. If it does, then the latest YouGov survey for Prospect suggests that the fundamentals favour a vote…

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