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EMU’s irrevocable mess

Recent events make more likely a "soft" Emu incorporating Spain and Italy. But this will make it more vulnerable to currency speculation during the transitional period 1999-2001

By Walter Eltis   July 1997

The political turmoil surrounding European monetary union-following the victory of the French socialists and Chancellor Kohl’s rebuff from the Bundesbank-makes all prediction about the future of Emu dangerous. But whether the destination is a hard or a soft euro, the political will to start on time remains overwhelming. As has been pointed out before, Emu is primarily a political project. It has survived the covert undermining of the Maastricht criteria (through various forms of creative accounting) and it will now probably withstand the overt undermining of the criteria. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the French finance minister, has already called Maastricht’s 3 per…

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